IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03384667.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intelligence artificielle, croissance et emploi : le rôle des politiques

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Aghion

    (Harvard University)

  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Simon Bunel

Abstract

In this survey paper, we argue that the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation on growth and employment depend to a large extent on institutions and policies. We develop a two‑fold analysis. In a first section, we survey the most recent literature to show that AI can spur growth by replacing labor by capital, both in the production of goods and services and in the production of ideas. Yet, we argue that AI may inhibit growth if combined with inappropriate competition policy. In a second section, we discuss the effect of robotization on employment in France over the 1994‑2014 period. Based on our empirical analysis on French data, we first show that robotization reduces aggregate employment at the employment zone level, and second that non‑educated workers are more negatively affected by robotization than educated workers. This finding suggests that inappropriate labor market and education policies reduce the positive impact that AI and automation could have on employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Intelligence artificielle, croissance et emploi : le rôle des politiques," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03384667, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03384667
    DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1994
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03384667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03384667/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1994?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2022. "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 193-221, January.
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    4. Hémous, David & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Olsen, Morten & Zanella, carlo, 2019. "Automating Labor: Evidence from Firm-level Patent Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    6. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    7. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    8. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    9. Hong Cheng & Ruixue Jia & Dandan Li & Hongbin Li, 2019. "The Rise of Robots in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 71-88, Spring.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/32clie4jki8msomae05u1i6kan is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/32clie4jki8msomae05u1i6kan is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8448a5ts5gt5ade0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Artificial Intelligence, Growth and Employment: The Role of Policy," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 149-164.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8448a5ts5gt5ade0 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    7. Wang, Heting & Wang, Huijuan & Guan, Rong, 2024. "Digitalization of industries and labor mobility in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    9. Gaetano Basso, 2020. "The Evolution of the Occupational Structure in Italy, 2007–2017," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 673-704, November.
    10. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    11. Blit, Joel, 2020. "Automation and reallocation: The lasting legacy of COVID-19 in Canada," CLEF Working Paper Series 31, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    12. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Harald Fadinger & Gino Gancia, 2024. "Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3428-3444.
    13. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    14. Barth, Erling & Bryson, Alex & Dale-Olsen, Harald, 2022. "Creative Disruption: Technology Innovation, Labour Demand and the Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 15762, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Adamczyk, Willian Boschetti & Monasterio, Leonardo & Fochezatto, Adelar, 2021. "Automation in the future of public sector employment: the case of Brazilian Federal Government," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    18. Stéphane Auray, David Fuller & Damba lkhagvasuren & Antoine Terracol, 2014. "A Dynamic Analysis of Sectoral Mobility, Worker Mismatc and the Wage-Tenure Profiles," Working Papers 2014-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    19. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Auray Stéphane & Fuller David & Lkhagvasuren Damba & Terracol Antoine, 2017. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage, Directed Mobility Across Sectors, and Wages," Working Papers 2017-59, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    21. Christian Gschwendt, 2022. "Routine job dynamics in the Swiss labor market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, December.
    22. Noritaka Kudoh & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2021. "Robots and Unemployment," Working Papers SDES-2021-5, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised May 2021.
    23. Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2016. "A routine transition? Causes and consequences of the changing content of jobs in Central and Eastern Europe," IBS Policy Papers 05/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    24. Rajarshi Majumder, 2018. "Technology and Labour Market: Insights from Indian Manufacturing Sector," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 321-338, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Growth; Automation; Robots; Employment; Intelligence artificielle; Croissance; Automatisation; Emploi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03384667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.