IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-04075483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Information as a Source of Disagreement

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Bouton

    (GU - Georgetown University [Washington], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Aniol Llorente-Saguer

    (QMUL - Queen Mary University of London, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Antonin Macé

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Adam Meirowitz

    (Yale University [New Haven])

  • Shaoting Pi

    (ISU - Iowa State University)

  • Dimitrios Xefteris

    (University of Cyprus = Université de Chypre)

Abstract

This paper studies how Bayesian agents' beliefs about the value of a random variable respond to the disclosure of public information. We show that the release of public information can increase disagreement about the value of that variable. This occurs when the public information does not pertain directly to the value of the variable, but instead pertains to factors influencing its value. This result holds for a range of assumptions about the information structure including cases where the public announcements involve aggregating private information held by the agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Bouton & Aniol Llorente-Saguer & Antonin Macé & Adam Meirowitz & Shaoting Pi & Dimitrios Xefteris, 2024. "Public Information as a Source of Disagreement," PSE Working Papers halshs-04075483, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04075483
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04075483v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04075483v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sophia Zhengzi Li & Ernst Maug & Miriam Schwartz-Ziv, 2022. "When Shareholders Disagree: Trading after Shareholder Meetings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1813-1867.
    2. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    3. Péter Kondor, 2012. "The More We Know about the Fundamental, the Less We Agree on the Price," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1175-1207.
    4. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    5. Berno Buechel & Lydia Mechtenberg & Alexander F. Wagner, 2022. "When do proxy advisors improve corporate decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-47, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Giannini, Robert & Irvine, Paul & Shu, Tao, 2019. "The convergence and divergence of investors' opinions around earnings news: Evidence from a social network," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-120.
    7. Bond, Philip & Eraslan, Hülya, 2010. "Information-based trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1675-1703, September.
    8. Alessandra Casella & Aniol Llorente-Saguer & Thomas R. Palfrey, 2012. "Competitive Equilibrium in Markets for Votes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 593-658.
    9. Laurent Bouton & Aniol Llorente-Saguer & Frédéric Malherbe, 2018. "Get Rid of Unanimity Rule: The Superiority of Majority Rules with Veto Power," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 107-149.
    10. Snehal Banerjee & Ilan Kremer, 2010. "Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1269-1302, August.
    11. Anat R. Admati & Paul Pfleiderer, 2009. "The "Wall Street Walk" and Shareholder Activism: Exit as a Form of Voice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2445-2485, July.
    12. Doron Levit, 2019. "Soft Shareholder Activism," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(7), pages 2775-2808.
    13. Coughlan, Peter J., 2000. "In Defense of Unanimous Jury Verdicts: Mistrials, Communication, and Strategic Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(2), pages 375-393, June.
    14. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    15. Myerson, Roger B., 1998. "Extended Poisson Games and the Condorcet Jury Theorem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 111-131, October.
    16. Hu, Henry T.C. & Black, Bernard, 2007. "Hedge funds, insiders, and the decoupling of economic and voting ownership: Empty voting and hidden (morphable) ownership," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 343-367, June.
    17. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Andrey Malenko & Nadya Malenko, 2019. "Proxy Advisory Firms: The Economics of Selling Information to Voters," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2441-2490, October.
    19. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Austen-Smith, David & Banks, Jeffrey S., 1996. "Information Aggregation, Rationality, and the Condorcet Jury Theorem," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 34-45, March.
    21. Shichao Ma & Yan Xiong, 2021. "Information Bias in the Proxy Advisory Market," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 82-135.
    22. Meirowitz, Adam & Pi, Shaoting, 2022. "Voting and trading: The shareholder’s dilemma," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1073-1096.
    23. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Yuan Xue, 2018. "Volume, Volatility, and Public News Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2005-2041.
    25. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Ernst Maug & Kristian Rydqvist, 2009. "Do Shareholders Vote Strategically? Voting Behavior, Proposal Screening, and Majority Rules," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 47-79.
    28. Susan E.K. Christoffersen & Christopher C. Geczy & David K. Musto & Adam V. Reed, 2007. "Vote Trading and Information Aggregation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2897-2929, December.
    29. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    30. Andrey Malenko & Nadya Malenko & Chester S. Spatt, 2021. "Creating Controversy in Proxy Voting Advice," NBER Working Papers 29036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. J. Anthony Cookson & Marina Niessner, 2020. "Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 173-228, February.
    32. Doron Levit, 2020. "Words Speak Louder without Actions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 91-131, February.
    33. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Cookson, J. Anthony & izhakian, yehuda, 2022. "Do I Really Want to Hear The News? Public Information Arrival and Investor Beliefs," SocArXiv ud7yw, Center for Open Science.
    34. Vincent Grégoire & Charles Martineau, 2022. "How is Earnings News Transmitted to Stock Prices?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 261-297, March.
    35. Chordia, Tarun & Miao, Bin, 2020. "Market efficiency in real time: Evidence from low latency activity around earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    36. Brav, Alon & Mathews, Richmond D., 2011. "Empty voting and the efficiency of corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 289-307, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meirowitz, Adam & Pi, Shaoting, 2022. "Voting and trading: The shareholder’s dilemma," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1073-1096.
    2. Berno Buechel & Lydia Mechtenberg & Alexander F. Wagner, 2022. "When do proxy advisors improve corporate decisions?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-47, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2020. "Blockholder voting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 695-717.
    4. Laurent Bouton & Aniol Llorente-Saguer & Antonin Macé & Dimitrios Xefteris, 2021. "Voting Rights, Agenda Control and Information Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 29005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Cookson, J. Anthony & izhakian, yehuda, 2022. "Do I Really Want to Hear The News? Public Information Arrival and Investor Beliefs," SocArXiv ud7yw, Center for Open Science.
    7. Paul Fischer & Chongho Kim & Frank Zhou, 2022. "Disagreement about fundamentals: measurement and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1423-1456, December.
    8. Sonya Zhu, 2023. "Volume dynamics around FOMC announcements," BIS Working Papers 1079, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    10. Huang, Chong & Lunawat, Radhika & Wang, Qiguang, 2024. "Disagreement about public information quality and informational price efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Dasgupta, Amil & Fos, Vyacheslav & Sautner, Zacharias, 2021. "Institutional investors and corporate governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112114, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Sujoy Mukerji & Han N. Ozsoylev & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2023. "Trading Ambiguity: A Tale Of Two Heterogeneities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1127-1164, August.
    13. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    14. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    15. Eric R. Holzman & Nathan T. Marshall & Joseph H. Schroeder & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2021. "Is all disaggregation good for investors? Evidence from earnings announcements," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 520-558, June.
    16. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    17. Yan, Ruzhen & Yue, Ding & Chen, Xudong & Wu, Xu, 2020. "Non-linear characterization and trend identification of liquidity in China's new OTC stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Daniel Kirste & Niclas Kannengie{ss}er & Ricky Lamberty & Ali Sunyaev, 2023. "How Automated Market Makers Approach the Thin Market Problem in Cryptoeconomic Systems," Papers 2309.12818, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    19. Gao, George P. & Lu, Xiaomeng & Song, Zhaogang & Yan, Hongjun, 2019. "Disagreement beta," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 96-113.
    20. Hirota, Shinichi, 2023. "Money supply, opinion dispersion, and stock prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1286-1310.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public events; Agent voting; Information aggregation; Disagreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04075483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.