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Macroeconomic evidence suggests that asylum seekers are not a “burden” for Western European countries

Author

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  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Ekrame Boubtane

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Dramane Coulibaly

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the economic and fiscal effects of inflows of asylum seekers into Western Europe from 1985 to 2015. It relies on an empirical methodology that is widely used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of structural shocks and policies. It shows that inflows of asylum seekers do not deteriorate host countries' economic performance or fiscal balance, because the increase in public spending induced by asylum seekers is more than compensated for by an increase in tax revenues net of transfers. As asylum seekers become permanent residents, their macroeconomic impacts become positive.

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  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2018. "Macroeconomic evidence suggests that asylum seekers are not a “burden” for Western European countries," PSE Working Papers halshs-01821515, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01821515
    DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0883
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01821515
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    1. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2017. "On the economics and politics of refugee migration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 497-550.
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    Cited by:

    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    2. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2021. "Demographic changes and the labor income share," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Hippolyte d'Albis & Dramane Coulibaly & Alix Roumagnac & Eurico de Carvalho Filho & Raphaël Bertrand, 2021. "Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2," Working Papers halshs-03420671, HAL.
    4. Ekrame Boubtane, 2019. "Les effets économiques de l’immigration pour les pays d’accueil," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03067790, HAL.
    5. Clemens, Michael A. & Pritchett, Lant, 2019. "The new economic case for migration restrictions: An assessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 153-164.
    6. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2018. "Immigration and Government Spending in OECD Countries," Working Papers hal-01852411, HAL.
    7. Iana Liadze & Corrado Macchiarelli & Paul Mortimer‐Lee & Patricia Sanchez Juanino, 2023. "Economic costs of the Russia‐Ukraine war," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 874-886, April.
    8. Denise Margaret S. Matias, 2020. "Climate humanitarian visa: international migration opportunities as post-disaster humanitarian intervention," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 143-156, May.
    9. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2022. "Global Uncertainty and International Migration To Western Europe," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 148, pages 1-28.
    10. Coulibaly, Dramane & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Shamsuddin,Mrittika & Acosta,Pablo Ariel & Battaglin Schwengber,Rovane & Fix,Jedediah Rooney & Pirani,Nikolas, 2021. "Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9797, The World Bank.
    12. IGARASHI Akira & ONO Yoshikuni, 2020. "The Effects of Negative and Positive Information on Attitudes toward Immigration," Discussion papers 20023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2022. "Emigration and Capital Flows: Do Migrants’ Skills Matter?," Working Papers of BETA 2022-31, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Jamal Bouoiyour & Amal Miftah & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The economic contribution of immigration on Europe: Fresh evidence from a “hybrid” quantile regression model," Working Papers hal-02346700, HAL.
    15. Gavious, Ilanit & Jacoby, Tomer & Milo, Orit, 2023. "Economic consequences of building a cross-country barrier among alternative policies to deal with unauthorized immigration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    Keywords

    asylum seekers; net migration; public finances; growth; unemployment; panel VAR;
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