IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/pseptp/hal-04676545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Missing Poor in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Mathieu Lefebvre

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pierre Pestieau

    (HEC Liège, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Gregory Ponthiere

    (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

Abstract

Given that poor individuals face worse survival conditions than non-poor individuals, one can expect that a steeper income gradient in mortality leads, through stronger income-based selection, to a lower poverty rate at the old age (i.e. the "missing poor" hypothesis). This paper uses U.S. state-level data on poverty at age 65+ and life expectancy by income levels to provide an empirical test of the missing poor hypothesis. Using average temperature as an instrument for mortality differentials, we show that instrumented changes in mortality differentials have a negative and statistically significant effect on old-age poverty: a 1 % increase in the mortality differential implies a 16 % decrease in the 65+ headcount poverty rate. Using those regression results, we compute hypothetical old-age poverty rates while neutralizing the impact of the income gradient in mortality, and show that correcting for heterogeneity in income-based selection effects modifies the comparison of old-age poverty prevalence across states.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "Missing Poor in the U.S," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04676545, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04676545
    DOI: 10.1007/s10888-024-09625-w
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04676545v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Belloni & Rob Alessie & Adriaan Kalwij & Chiara Marinacci, 2013. "Lifetime income and old age mortality risk in Italy over two decades," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(45), pages 1261-1298.
    2. Lefebvre, Mathieu & Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2019. "Missing poor and income mobility," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 330-366.
    3. James E Duggan & Robert Gillingham & John S Greenlees, 2008. "Mortality and Lifetime Income: Evidence from U.S. Social Security Records," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 566-594, December.
    4. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
    5. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    6. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    8. Christian Baudelot & Yvanie Caillé & Olivier Godechot & Sylvie Mercier & Paul Reeve, 2016. "Renal Diseases and Social Inequalities in Access to Transplantation in France," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 0(1), pages 23-51.
    9. Mathieu Lefèbvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2019. "Premature mortality and poverty measurement in an OLG economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 621-664, April.
    10. Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Measuring poverty without the Mortality Paradox," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 40(1), pages 285-316, January.
    11. Cristia, Julian P., 2009. "Rising mortality and life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 984-995, September.
    12. Deaton, Angus S & Paxson, Christina H, 1998. "Aging and Inequality in Income and Health," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 248-253, May.
    13. Herman Oyen & Nathalie Bossuyt & Patrick Deboosere & Sylvie Gadeyne & Emmanuel Abatih & Stefaan Demarest, 2005. "Differential inequity in health expectancy by region in Belgium," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 50(5), pages 301-310, October.
    14. Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2018. "FGT Old-Age Poverty Measures and the Mortality Paradox : Theory and Evidence," Post-Print halshs-01630662, HAL.
    15. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    16. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    17. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    18. Ravi Kanbur & Diganta Mukherjee, 2007. "Premature Mortality And Poverty Measurement," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 339-359, October.
    19. Sen, Amartya, 1998. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
    20. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    21. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    22. Cristia, Julian P., 2009. "Rising mortality and life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings in the United States," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 984-995, September.
    23. Mathieu Lefèbvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2018. "FGT Old†Age Poverty Measures and the Mortality Paradox: Theory and Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 428-458, June.
    24. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    25. Tatyana Deryugina & Solomon M. Hsiang, 2014. "Does the Environment Still Matter? Daily Temperature and Income in the United States," NBER Working Papers 20750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. repec:dau:papers:123456789/451 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 01A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    28. Melissa P L Chan & Robert S Weinhold & Reuben Thomas & Julia M Gohlke & Christopher J Portier, 2015. "Environmental Predictors of US County Mortality Patterns on a National Basis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    29. Gallup, John & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294434, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    30. Adriaan Kalwij & Rob Alessie & Marike Knoef, 2013. "The Association Between Individual Income and Remaining Life Expectancy at the Age of 65 in the Netherlands," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 181-206, February.
    31. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    32. Moshe Hazan, 2009. "Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1829-1863, November.
    33. Backlund, Eric & Sorlie, Paul D. & Johnson, Norman J., 1999. "A comparison of the relationships of education and income with mortality: the national longitudinal mortality study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 49(10), pages 1373-1384, November.
    34. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2021. "The evolution of longevity: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 164-192, February.
    35. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    36. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lefebvre, Mathieu & Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2019. "Missing poor and income mobility," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 330-366.
    2. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Mathieu Lefèbvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2019. "Premature mortality and poverty measurement in an OLG economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 621-664, April.
    8. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    9. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    10. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    11. Siganos, Antonios, 2024. "Climate theory & managerial decisions on cross-border mergers," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1).
    12. Naser Amanzadeh & Toshi H. Arimura & Mohammad Vesal & Seyed Farshad Fatemi Ardestani, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Climate Change:Evidence from Iran," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 2007, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    13. Mathieu Lefèbvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2018. "FGT Old†Age Poverty Measures and the Mortality Paradox: Theory and Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 428-458, June.
    14. Rok Spruk & Mitja Kovac, 2019. "Transaction costs and economic growth under common legal system: State‐level evidence from Mexico," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 240-292, July.
    15. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2017. "Health Consequences of the Russian Weather," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 290-306.
    16. Ahn, Kwangwon & Chu, Zhuang & Lee, Daeyong, 2021. "Effects of renewable energy use in the energy mix on social welfare," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. R. Jisung Park & Joshua Goodman & Michael Hurwitz & Jonathan Smith, 2020. "Heat and Learning," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 306-339, May.
    19. Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2023. "Counting the missing poor in pre-industrial societies," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 17(1), pages 155-183, January.
    20. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Yin, Lijuan, 2021. "Extreme heat and exports: Evidence from Chinese exporters," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Measurement; Income gradient in mortality; Selection biases; Comparability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04676545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Caroline Bauer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.