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Incertitude de classement final et affluence en Ligue 1 française de football : une nouvelle approche

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cet article propose une nouvelle méthode pour évaluer les e¤ets de l'incertitude d'une rencon-tre et de classement …nal sur l'a-uence dans les stades de Ligue 1. L'issue incertaine d'un match est évaluée à partir des di¤érences relatives de qualité des équipes. Contrairement aux précédentes études, ces forces intrinsèques sont estimées de manière aléatoire à partir des di¤érences de budget salarial des clubs et elles sont, par la suite, réévaluées en fonction des résultats observés durant la saison. En outre, l'incertitude de classement …nal est ici modélisée dans un espace de probabilités permettant d'avoir une information statistique plus complète que des indicateurs agrégés. Suivant cette approche, trois résultats principaux émergent : (i) l'incertitude d'une rencontre présente un e¤et signi…catif non-linéaire et positif sur l'a-uence dans les stades, (ii) les spectateurs ont des demandes antagonistes en espérant que leur club favori ne soit pas rejoint par des poursuiv-ants durant la saison mais paradoxalement ils souhaitent une incertitude plus élevée concernant le classement …nal, (iii) l'intérêt du spectateur n'est pas linéairement décroissant en fonction de la hiérarchie du classement …nal mais de forme sinusoïdale avec un engouement plus important con-cernant l'attribution des places quali…catives en Europa League et pour les équipes luttant contre la relégation. L'intérêt pour la victoire …nale peut s'avérer prépondérant pour l'attractivité globale du championnat, mais ce dernier est devenu plus volatile avec les nouvelles capacités …nancières du PSG. Classi…cation-JEL: C11, D40, Z28

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet, 2018. "Incertitude de classement final et affluence en Ligue 1 française de football : une nouvelle approche," Post-Print halshs-02064147, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02064147
    DOI: 10.3917/redp.284.0641
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02064147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guironnet, Jean-Pascal, 2023. "Competitive intensity and industry performance of professional sports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incertitude; Calcul Bayésien; Football; Affluence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Z28 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Policy

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