IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01164025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Insights to the European debt crisis using recurrence quantification and network analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Martey Addo

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The turmoil in the sovereign debt markets in Europe has raised concerns on the usefulness of sovereign credit default swaps and government bond yields in periods of distress. In addressing this issue, we introduce a novel nonlinear approach for the analysis of non-stationary multivariate data based on complex networks and recurrence analysis. We show the relevance of the approach in studying joint risk connections, extracting hidden spatial information, time dependence, detection of regime changes and providing early warning indicators. The feasibility and relevance of the approach in studying systemic risk is discussed. Finally, we share more light on possible extensions and applications of the approach to systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Insights to the European debt crisis using recurrence quantification and network analysis," Post-Print halshs-01164025, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01164025
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01164025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01164025/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    2. Addo, Peter Martey & Billio, Monica & Guégan, Dominique, 2013. "Nonlinear dynamics and recurrence plots for detecting financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 416-435.
    3. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    4. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    5. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guégan, 2014. "Turning point chronology for the euro area: A distance plot approach," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(1), pages 1-14.
    6. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Liu, Estelle X. & Schmittmann, Jochen M., 2015. "Equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 164-172.
    7. A. Fabretti & M. Ausloos, 2005. "Recurrence Plot And Recurrence Quantification Analysis Techniques For Detecting A Critical Regime. Examples From Financial Market Inidices," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(05), pages 671-706.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Coupling direction of the European Banking and Insurance sectors using inter-system recurrence networks," Post-Print halshs-01169516, HAL.
    2. Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Coupling direction of the European Banking and Insurance sectors using inter-system recurrence networks," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Xiong, Hui & Shang, Pengjian & Bian, Songhan, 2017. "Detecting intrinsic dynamics of traffic flow with recurrence analysis and empirical mode decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 70-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Insights to the European debt crisis using recurrence quantification and network analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Peter Martey Addo & Philippe De Peretti, 2014. "Detection and quantification of causal dependencies in multivariate time series: a novel information theoretic approach to understanding systemic risk," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14069, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Chang, Carolyn W. & Li, Xiaodan & Lin, Edward M.H. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 273-284.
    4. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    5. Xisong Jin, 2018. "How much does book value data tell us about systemic risk and its interactions with the macroeconomy? A Luxembourg empirical evaluation," BCL working papers 118, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    7. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    8. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    9. Kanga, Désiré & Soumaré, Issouf & Amenounvé, Edoh, 2023. "Can corporate financing through the stock market create systemic risk? Evidence from the BRVM securities market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    11. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    12. Borri, Nicola, 2018. "Local currency systemic risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-123.
    13. Morelli, David & Vioto, Davide, 2020. "Assessing the contribution of China’s financial sectors to systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    15. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    17. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    18. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2014. "Assessing the contribution of banks, insurance and other financial services to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-287.
    19. Kreis, Yvonne & Leisen, Dietmar P.J., 2018. "Systemic risk in a structural model of bank default linkages," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-236.
    20. Edward M. H. Lin & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 579-603, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01164025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.