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Quel rôle pour les scénarios Facteur 4 dans la construction de la décision publique ?

Author

Listed:
  • Sandrine Mathy

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Meike Fink

    (Réseau Action Climat)

  • Ruben Bibas

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Seven long-term prospective studies representing the energy trajectories consistent with a Factor Four, i.e. a 75% reduction of greenhouse gases emissions in 2050 in France have been identified. We analyze their methodology and the high dispersion of results. Then we discuss the role of scenario-making. Among them, only one of the scenarios achieves the Factor Four, thereby showing the limitations of these studies. On the methodological side, the engineering models used appear as black boxes, each using their own technological hypotheses and not readily understandable by the non-specialist. Therefore, exchanges between modelers, economists, technologists, sociologists and representatives of the civil society are a key factor for these scenario elaboration as their legitimacy stems from social and politic appropriation of scientific results.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Mathy & Meike Fink & Ruben Bibas, 2011. "Quel rôle pour les scénarios Facteur 4 dans la construction de la décision publique ?," Post-Print halshs-00797419, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00797419
    DOI: 10.4000/developpementdurable.8802
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00797419
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2009. "Taxe carbone, une mesure socialement régressive ? Vrais problèmes et faux débats," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866409, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathy, Sandrine & Fink, Meike & Bibas, Ruben, 2015. "Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 176-190.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor Four; technology Economy models; carbon price; climatic policies; energy mix; methodology; energy scenarios; greenhouse gases; méthodologie; facteur 4; modèles technico-économiques; prix du carbone; politiques climatiques; mix énergétique; scénarios énergétiques; émissions; gaz à effet de serre;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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