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Oil prices and government bond risk premiums

Author

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  • Herve Alexandre

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Benoist Antonin De

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of oil price on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oil price on government bond risk premiums. We develop a model of credit spread with data from the EMBIG index of seventeen countries, from 1998 to 2008. An analysis in time series has been carried out on each country. Then we use a panel analysis to determine the global impact of oil prices on the risk perceptions of investors. Finally, we suggest a new estimator for the oil price to take into account the effect of the price variance. We show that the oil price influences the risk premiums of sovereign bonds, along with the price volatility that increases the accuracy of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Herve Alexandre & Benoist Antonin De, 2010. "Oil prices and government bond risk premiums," Post-Print halshs-00642191, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00642191
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00642191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2024. "The sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads and Chinese Sectors Stock Market: A Causality in Quantile and Dependence Analysis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 845-866, December.
    3. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    7. Belyakov, Igor (Беляков, Игорь), 2017. "On the Determinants of Sovereign Eurobond Spreads in Russia [О Факторах, Определяющих Спрэды Суверенных Еврооблигаций России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 200-225, February.
    8. Naifar, Nader, 2024. "Examining the nexus between oil shocks and sovereign credit risk: Multidimensional insights from major oil exporters," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    10. André, Marine C. & Armijo, Alberto & Espidio, Sebastián Medina & Sandoval, Jamel, 2023. "Policy mix in a small open emerging economy with commodity prices," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    11. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.
    12. Rahamat, Amri & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Granger-causality between oil price, exchange rate and government bonds: evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 111769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    14. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    15. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Commodity volatility shocks and BRIC sovereign risk: A GARCH-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 385-392.
    16. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Jatin Malhotra & Angelo Corelli, 2018. "The Determinants of CDS Spreads in Multiple Industry Sectors: A Comparison between the US and Europe," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16, August.
    18. Zhang, Zhengyong & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Tail risk transmission from commodity prices to sovereign risk of emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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