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A modified Panjer algorithm for operational risk capital calculations

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  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Bertrand Hassani

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Operational risk management inside banks and insurance companies is an important task. The computation of a risk measure associated to these kinds of risks lies in the knowledge of the so-called loss distribution function (LDF). Traditionally, this LDF is computed via Monte Carlo simulations or using the Panjer recursion, which is an iterative algorithm. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of this last algorithm in order to improve the computation of convolutions between Panjer class distributions and continuous distributions, by mixing the Monte Carlo method, a progressive kernel lattice and the Panjer recursion. This new hybrid algorithm does not face the traditional drawbacks. This simple approach enables us to drastically reduce the variance of the estimated value-at-risk associated with the operational risks and to lower the aliasing error we would have using Panjer recursion itself. Furthermore, this method is much less timeconsuming than a Monte Carlo simulation. We compare our new method with more sophisticated approaches already developed in operational risk literature.

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  • Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2009. "A modified Panjer algorithm for operational risk capital calculations," Post-Print halshs-00443846, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00443846
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00443846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Craddock & David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 1999. "Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms: A Survey of Techniques with Applications to Derivative Pricing," Research Paper Series 27, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Grübel, Rudolf & Hermesmeier, Renate, 1999. "Computation of Compound Distributions I: Aliasing Errors and Exponential Tilting," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 197-214, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Guégan & Wayne Tarrant, 2012. "On the necessity of five risk measures," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 533-552, November.
    2. Bertrand K. Hassani & Wei Yang, 2016. "The Lila distribution and its applications in risk modelling," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01169268, HAL.
    4. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Post-Print halshs-01020293, HAL.
    5. Chih-Kang Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2019. "Predicting Loss Distributions for Small-Size Defaulted-Debt Portfolios Using a Convolution Technique that Allows Probability Masses to Occur at Boundary Points," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 95-117, August.
    6. Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2012. "Multivariate VaRs for Operational Risk Capital Computation: a Vine Structure Approach," Post-Print halshs-00587706, HAL.
    8. Vasileios M. Koutras & Markos V. Koutras, 2020. "Exact Distribution of Random Order Statistics and Applications in Risk Management," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1539-1558, December.
    9. Bertrand K. Hassani, 2014. "Risk Appetite in Practice: Vulgaris Mathematica," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01020293, HAL.
    10. Dominique Guegan & Wayne Tarrant, 2012. "On the Necessity of Five Risk Measures," Post-Print halshs-00721339, HAL.
    11. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2012. "Operational risk : A Basel II++ step before Basel III," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00722029, HAL.
    12. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2011. "Multivariate VaRs for Operational Risk Capital Computation: a Vine Structure Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11017rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Apr 2012.
    13. Dominique Gu�gan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Working Papers 2015:18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    15. Dominique Guegan & Wayne Tarrant, 2012. "On the Necessity of Five Risk Measures," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00721339, HAL.
    16. Vasileios M. Koutras & Markos V. Koutras & Spiros D. Dafnis, 2022. "A Family of Induced Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1833-1848, September.
    17. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2012. "Operational risk : A Basel II++ step before Basel III," Post-Print halshs-00722029, HAL.
    18. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2015. "Risk or Regulatory Capital? Bringing distributions back in the foreground," Post-Print halshs-01169268, HAL.
    19. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Post-Print halshs-00951593, HAL.
    20. Bertrand K. Hassani & Wei Yang, 2016. "The Lila distribution and its applications in risk modelling," Post-Print halshs-01400186, HAL.

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