IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00078081.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité

Author

Listed:
  • Fabien Rondeau

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christophe Tavéra

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

[eng] We evaluate the influence of international goods trade on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks among European countries. We model business-cycle interdependence as a constrained VAR process. Empirical results show a close link between shock transmission and bilateral trade shares. Adiffusion indicator corroborates the dominating influence of the largest economies such as France and Germany within the shock contagion process. Synchronization between European business cycles should increase if the European Monetary Union leads to an increase in intra-European trade. [fre] Cet article analyse le rôle du commerce international de biens en tant que canal de transmission des chocs macro-économiques conjoncturels entre les pays européens. Les interdépendances des conjonctures européennes sont modélisées à partir d’un processus VAR contraint. Les fonctions de réponses font apparaître que la capacité de diffusion des chocs conjoncturels d’un pays est clairement reliée aux parts commerciales de ce pays avec les autres pays partenaires. La construction d’un indicateur de diffusion des chocs conforte l’idée du rôle prépondérant des grandes économies telles que la France et l’Allemagne. Enfin, la synchronisation des mouvements conjoncturels des PIB européens devrait s’accroître si l’Union Monétaire conduit à une augmentation des échanges commerciaux intra-européens.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Rondeau & Christophe Tavéra, 2005. "Interdépendance macroéconomique des pays européens et propagation des chocs conjoncturels d'activité," Post-Print halshs-00078081, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00078081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
    3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    5. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2002. "International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 273-300, February.
    6. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    7. Falvey, Rod & Foster, Neil & Greenaway, David, 2004. "Imports, exports, knowledge spillovers and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 209-213, November.
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
    9. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    10. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
    11. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output‐Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, May.
    12. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
    14. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabien Rondeau, 2006. "Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 200614, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 39-61.
    2. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 1(2), June.
    3. Chang, Koyin & Kim, Yoonbai & Tomljanovich, Marc & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2013. "Do political parties foster business cycles? An examination of developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 212-226.
    4. Selin Sayek & David D. Selover, 2002. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 206-238, October.
    5. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    7. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    10. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2015. "Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?," IMF Working Papers 2015/138, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    12. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    13. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Yifan Shen & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2021. "International Transmission Mechanism And World Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 510-531, January.
    16. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    17. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Hecksher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585, July.
    19. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Papers No 3/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    20. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00078081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.