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Le rôle des échanges commerciaux dans la synchronisation des cycles économiques : Le cas du Cameroun et du Nigéria

Author

Listed:
  • Romuald Fernand Awoutcha Tchieuzing

    (Université de Douala, Faculté des Sciences Économiques et Gestion Appliquée, Douala, Cameroun)

  • Florent Ulrich Fotsing Waffo

    (Université de Douala, Faculté des Sciences Économiques et Gestion Appliquée, Douala, Cameroun)

Abstract

Au regard de la proximité économique et du niveau des échanges de plus en plus élevé entre le Cameroun et le Nigéria, le présent article a pour objectif de dater les cycles économiques des deux pays et d'évaluer les effets du commerce sur leur synchronisation. Pour ce faire, deux approches sont mises en évidence: le cycle des affaires et le cycle de croissance, d'une part, l'indice de concordance de Harding et Pagan (2006), d'autre part. Les résultats obtenus par l'approche du cycle révèlent que la récession consécutive au second choc pétrolier de 1979 est la plus sévère et profonde de toute l'histoire des deux pays. En outre, les PIB des deux économies reviennent vers leurs tendances de long terme au bout de quelques années après un choc. Cela signifie qu'un choc exogène n'a que des effets transitoires sur les PIB des deux économies. L'estimation de l'indice de concordance d'Harding et Pagan (2006) montre qu'il existe globalement une forte synchronisation entre les cycles économiques du Cameroun et ceux du Nigéria, notamment pendant ces deux dernières décennies correspondant à la période où l'on observe des flux commerciaux de plus en plus importants entre les deux pays. Si les flux commerciaux entre le Cameroun et le Nigéria constituent un vecteur de transmission cyclique, alors, la diversification des accords et des partenariats économiques serait de nature à réduire et à limiter les effets négatifs et les chocs dus au commerce international sur l'économie camerounaise.

Suggested Citation

  • Romuald Fernand Awoutcha Tchieuzing & Florent Ulrich Fotsing Waffo, 2024. "Le rôle des échanges commerciaux dans la synchronisation des cycles économiques : Le cas du Cameroun et du Nigéria," Post-Print hal-04638609, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04638609
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04638609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
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