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The Unintended Consequences of High Regional Content Requirements

Author

Listed:
  • Keith Head

    (UBC - University of British Columbia, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Marc Melitz

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University - Harvard University, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

Rules of origin (RoOs) are a common feature of regional trade agreements that fall short of full custom unions. Two of the most important trade agreements, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU), recently enacted major changes to those rules. The 2020 USMCA agreement replacing NAFTA made those rules much stricter. Meanwhile, following its exit from the EU customs union, Britain and the remaining EU27 had to draw up new rules of origin for the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). This chapter quantifies the main trade-offs involved in setting the strictness of RoOs in the context of the automobile industry. A more stringent agreement can raise or lower regional parts production, but it inevitably raises prices. Fitting our model to data on the use of NAFTA-origin parts in cars assembled within the region, we calibrate the key parameters that govern the responses to stricter RoOs. We then apply the calibrated model to evaluate the switch from NAFTA to the USMCA as well as other counterfactuals of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & Marc Melitz, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of High Regional Content Requirements," Post-Print hal-04345742, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04345742
    DOI: 10.4324/9781003415794
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04345742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number irwi-2.
    2. Irwin, Douglas A., 2017. "Clashing over Commerce," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226398969, January.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Teti, Feodora & Yalcin, Erdal, 2019. "Rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Gene M. Grossman, 1981. "The Theory of Domestic Content Protection and Content Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(4), pages 583-603.
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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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