IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/jhisae/0108.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is American Manufacturing in Decline?

Author

Listed:
  • Kliesen, Kevin

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

  • Tatom, John

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

Abstract

There is a widespread popular view that American manufacturing is in decline. This declinist view reflects many factors. First, real GDP growth during the current business expansion has been the weakest in the post‐WWII period. Second, over the decade from 2000 to 2010, manufacturing employment has declined by about 6 million. Third, persistent manufacturing trade deficits have led many observers to conclude U.S. competitiveness has eroded. This paper discusses these arguments and suggests a competing view that, instead, U.S. manufacturing is a leading growth sector and has remained strongly competitive internationally. On balance, we show that traditional domestic economic forces adequately explain recent trends in U.S. manufacturing output and employment growth. Finally, we argue that the recent reduction in the corporate income tax rate may further boost the fortunes of the U.S. manufacturing sector, although this favorable development could be offset by a more restrictive international trade regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliesen, Kevin & Tatom, John, 2018. "Is American Manufacturing in Decline?," Studies in Applied Economics 108, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2018/06/SAE-No.108-June-2018-Is-American-Manufacturing-in-Decline-FINAL.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number irwi-2, February.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    3. Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 181-202.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    5. Lee Branstetter & Daniel Sichel, 2017. "The Case for an American Productivity Revival," Policy Briefs PB17-26, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Cliff Waldman, 2016. "The Evolving Contours of Productivity Performance and Automation Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 213-238, October.
    7. Douglas A. Irwin, 2017. "Introduction to "Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy, pages 1-27, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Irwin, Douglas A., 2017. "Clashing over Commerce," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226398969, December.
    9. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    10. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    11. Auerbach, Alan J. & Smetters, Kent (ed.), 2017. "The Economics of Tax Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190619725.
    12. John A. Tatom, 1988. "The link between the value of the dollar, U.S. trade and manufacturing output: some recent evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 24-37.
    13. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2013. "U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 27-50.
    14. William A. Strauss, 2003. "The disappearance of manufacturing?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jun.
    15. Edmund Phelps, 2015. "Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10058-2.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Claudia Goldin & Eugene N. White, 1998. "The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord98-1, February.
    17. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    18. Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2017. "China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 25(2).
    19. John A. Tatom, 1986. "Why has manufacturing employment declined?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 15-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Guan-Ying & Huang, Henry Hongren & Lee, Chun I, 2020. "Taming the dark side of asset liquidity: The role of short-term debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 539-562.
    2. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 4, pages 1-4.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 4, pages 1-4.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    3. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    4. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," Working Papers ECARES 2020-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2022. "Unequal gains, prolonged pain: A model of protectionist overshooting and escalation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Mary Kate Batistich & Timothy N Bond, 2023. "Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2792-2821.
    8. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2022. "Modeling semiconductor export restrictions and the US-China trade conflict," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates & Giammario Impullitti, 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33477, The World Bank Group.
    11. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    12. Xiang Ding & Teresa C. Fort & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2019. "Structural Change Within Versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 2019-9, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    13. Shantayanan Devarajan & Delfin S. Go & Csilla Lakatos & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2021. "Traders' dilemma: Developing countries' response to trade wars," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 856-878, April.
    14. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    15. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2019. "Regional Integration and Global Response to US Protectionism," Conference papers 333116, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Nicole Wu, 2023. "“Restrict foreigners, not robots”: Partisan responses to automation threat," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 505-528, July.
    18. Nathaniel Lane, 2020. "The New Empirics of Industrial Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-234, June.
    19. Nina Boberg-Fazlic & Markus Lampe & Maja Uhre Pedersen & Paul Sharp, 2021. "Pandemics and protectionism: evidence from the “Spanish” flu," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Bernard M. Hoekman & Petros C. Mavroidis & Douglas R. Nelson, 2023. "Geopolitical competition, globalisation and WTO reform," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1163-1188, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Steve H. Hanke (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaejhus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.