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Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Bottero, Margherita
  • Minoiu, Camelia
  • Peydró, José-Luis
  • Polo, Andrea
  • Presbitero, Andrea
  • Sette, Enrico

Abstract

We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on bank credit supply and firm outcomes through a portfolio rebalancing channel. For identification, we exploit ECB's NIRP and credit register, firm- and bank-level datasets. NIRP affects relatively more banks with higher ex-ante net interbank positions or more liquid balance sheets. More exposed banks reduce liquid assets, expand credit supply to ex-ante riskier firms, and cut rates, inducing sizable firm-level real effects. By shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero-lower-bound. We find no evidence of a contractionary retail deposit channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2020. "Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy," EconStor Preprints 216807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:216807
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    2. Bubeck, Johannes & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231.
    3. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2023. "Firm behaviour under negative deposit rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Simon H. Kwan & Mauricio Ulate & Ville Voutilainen, 2023. "The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland," Working Paper Series 2023-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Maria Alessia Aiello, 2024. "Climate supervisory shocks and bank lending: empirical evidence from microdata," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Coulier, Lara & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2024. "Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2950, European Central Bank.
    10. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Repullo, Rafael, 2020. "The Reversal Interest Rate: A Critical Review," CEPR Discussion Papers 15367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2021. "Tiers of Joy? Reserve Tiering and Bank Behavior in a Negative-Rate Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 16191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Sá, Ana Isabel & Jorge, José, 2019. "Does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    16. Gee Hee Hong & John Kandrac, 2022. "Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 1027-1063, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    negative nominal interest rates; firm-level real effects; Eurozone crisis; portfolio rebalancing; liquidity management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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