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Dynamic microeconomic modeling of French beef supply response
[Modélisation dynamique et micro-économique de l'offre de viande bovine en France]

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine C. Benjamin

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Isabelle Piot-Lepetit

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • . Agricultural Economics Research Institute

    (Agricultural Economics Research Institute)

Abstract

Les discussions actuelles sur les politiques des échanges ont mis en évidence le besoin d'une meilleure compréhension des marchés de la viande bovine. L'étude de l'adaptation du comportement des producteurs dans un environnement économique changeant permet d'anticiper les variations des flux d'échanges sur les marchés internationaux. L'article étudie l'offre de viande bovine à l'aide d'un modèle dynamique et micro-économique représentant les choix productifs des éleveurs. Par optimisation, il permet de dériver les équations de comportement des producteurs sans utiliser de spécifications ad hoc. Les producteurs sont supposés maximiser leur profit anticipé sur toute leur période d'activité. A chaque période, ils font des choix à partir des faits qu'ils connaissent mais aussi d'informations qu'ils anticipent concernant les périodes suivantes. Dans cette modélisation, les prix à l'abattage et les prix des aliments sont supposés exogènes. Les équations estimées sont obtenues par optimisation dynamique d'une fonction objective quadratique sous contraintes linéaires stochastiques et non stochastiques reflétant la structure biologique du cheptel. Le modèle est estimé sur des données françaises et est utilisé pour analyser les ajustements de la production au cours du temps de deux manières : 1. en étudiant la dynamique d'évolution du troupeau quand les prix de marché ou les variables de politiques agricoles évoluent et 2. en évaluant l'évolution des élasticités dynamiques de l'offre de viande suite à un changement des prix relatifs ou de toute autre variable économique d'intérêt.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine C. Benjamin & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & . Agricultural Economics Research Institute, 2003. "Dynamic microeconomic modeling of French beef supply response [Modélisation dynamique et micro-économique de l'offre de viande bovine en France]," Post-Print hal-02829771, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02829771
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02829771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
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