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A bayesian analysis of trade in agri-food products : an application to France

Author

Listed:
  • N. Herrard

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Y. Le Roux

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Y. Surry

    (ESR - Unité de recherche d'Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

Il s'agit, d'une part, de développer un modèle d'échanges commerciaux qui généralise la spécification d'Armington en permettant aux élasticités de substitution entre les différentes sources d'approvisionnement (marché intérieur et importations) d'être variables. Ce modèle de différenciation des produits repose sur une forme fonctionnelle linéairement homogène de type "Constant Difference of Elasticities", et est appliqué à la consommation française de sept produits agricoles et de dix-neuf produits agro-alimentaires (niveau NAP 600) importés et produits au niveau national. D'autre part, il s'agit de recourir à une procédure d'estimation bayésienne, avec des tirages de Monte-Carlo pondérés par la densité d'importance. On calcule ainsi les probabilités a posteriori de vérification des conditions de régularité du modèle (validité globale et validité locale de la fonction CDE sous-jacente), ainsi que les distributions a posteriori des élasticités de substitution d'Allen, ainsi que leurs valeurs moyennes.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Herrard & Y. Le Roux & Y. Surry, 1997. "A bayesian analysis of trade in agri-food products : an application to France," Post-Print hal-02290681, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02290681
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02290681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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