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Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Charles

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis)

  • Thomas Dallery

    (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jonathan Marie

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We use the AMECO database to confirm that textbook multipliers are nearly always greater than one and that they increase during recessions. Propensity to import falls in recessions through the combined effects of the amplified fall in investment (Aftalion) and the high import content of investment (Palley). A change in saving behavior (Pasinetti) may also raise the multiplier. These findings strongly support the need for countercyclical fiscal policies during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation," Post-Print hal-01785867, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01785867
    DOI: 10.1177/0486613417722527
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01785867
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    2. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
    3. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2019. "Has French budgetary policy since the 1970s been truly Keynesian?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 75-93, January.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Covid-19 and interweaving of crises: Restoring Keynesianism in order to rebuild macroeconomic policy [Covid-19 et imbrication des crises : réhabiliter le keynésianisme pour refonder la politique ma," Post-Print hal-03148074, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; recession; globalization; import content; investment accelerator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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