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La macroéconomie à l'heure de la stagnation séculaire

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La « grande récession » amorcée en 2008 a plongé l'économie dans une stagnation durable avec un fort chômage, une production dépréciée et une très faible inflation. Cette crise dont la durée exceptionnelle est difficilement explicable par les outils théoriques de la macroéconomie contemporaine invite à enrichir l'analyse fondamentale. Conceptualiser la stagnation séculaire repose alors sur l'introduction d'imperfections de marché telles qu'un rationnement du crédit sur le marché financier ainsi que des rigidités nominales sur le marché du travail. L'équilibre obtenu se caractérise par un sous-emploi des facteurs de production (chômage élevé, faible accumulation de capital) associé à une baisse des prix (déflation) et une politique monétaire inactive car contrainte par la non négativité du taux directeur. En régime de stagnation séculaire, l'impact des politiques économiques s'en trouve affecté et de nombreuses propriétés keynésiennes apparaissent : impact déflationniste des politiques d'offre, politique monétaire conventionnelle inopérante et effet positif de la dépense publique quoique limité par une éviction de l'investissement privé.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2017. "La macroéconomie à l'heure de la stagnation séculaire," Post-Print hal-01701339, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01701339
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.153.0079
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01701339v2
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