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Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non crisis? The French case

Author

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  • Carine Bouthevillain
  • Gilles Dufrénot

Abstract

This paper shows that the impact of changes in budgetary variables on real GDP, investment, consumption and employment varies in sign and magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis. To this end, a regime-switching process is embedded in standard macroeconomic equations in order to take into account different budgetary regimes. We find evidence of asymmetric effects for both the multiplier of government expenditure and the fiscal multiplier, with differing effects during the phases of crisis and non-crisis depending upon the level of debt, of the unemployment rate, of the outputgap.

Suggested Citation

  • Carine Bouthevillain & Gilles Dufrénot, 2011. "Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non crisis? The French case," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 121(3), pages 371-407.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_213_0371
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. G. Cléaud & M. Lemoine & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2013-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    2. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Snower, Dennis J. & Lechthaler, Wolfgang, 2013. "Worker Identity, Employment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 7413, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    6. Makambi, Steve & Muhindi, Reuben & Nduku, Gillian, 2017. "Influence of bank lending to the government on private sector credit in Kenya: A fiscal deficit specification," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 18, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    7. Sylvérie Herbert, 2014. "Econometric analysis of regime switches and of fiscal multipliers," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Abid, Mehdi & Alotaibi, Mohammed Naif, 2020. "Crude oil price and private sector of Saudi Arabia: Do globalization and financial development matter? New evidence from combined cointegration test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    10. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    12. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    13. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Markov-switching; Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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