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Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Brière

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ombretta Signori

    (AXA France - AXA)

Abstract

The exceptional rise in government deficits following the subprime crisis, the recent commodity price spikes and the increase in inflation volatility have revived the debate on medium to long-term resurgence of inflation. Using a vector-autoregressive model, this paper investigates the relationships between asset returns and inflation and the optimal strategic asset allocation for investors seeking to hedge inflation risk in two different types of macroeconomic regimes. In a volatile macroeconomic environment marked by countercyclical supply shocks, cash, inflation-linked bonds and precious metals play an essential role, while in a more stable environment ("Great Moderation") with procyclical demand shocks, cash and nominal bonds play the most significant role, followed by precious metals, real estate and equities. An ambitious investor in terms of required real returns should have a larger weighting in equities, real estate and precious metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Post-Print hal-01494498, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01494498
    DOI: 10.3905/jpm.2012.38.4.043
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01494498
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    3. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    4. Refk Selmi, 2023. "Do investors care about carbon risk? The impact of the Paris agreement on the inflation hedging performance of commodities," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1111-1121.
    5. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    6. Kees de Van & Daniele Fano & Herialt Mens & Giovanna Nicodano, 2014. "A Reporting Standard for Defined Contribution Pension Plans," CeRP Working Papers 143, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    7. Nicolas Pesci & Jean-Philippe Aguilar & Victor James & Fabien Rouillé, 2022. "Inflation Forecasts and European Asset Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo, 2020. "On the inflation risks embedded in sovereign bond yields," Working Paper Series 2423, European Central Bank.

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