IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01463114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Adelya Ospanova

    (DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale - GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process," Post-Print hal-01463114, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463114
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wyplosz, Charles, 2000. "Ten years of transformation - macroeconomic lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2288, The World Bank.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 1999/073, International Monetary Fund.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/211, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Eivind Tandberg & S. Ramamurthy, 2002. "Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan: Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/129, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies," IMF Working Papers 2000/070, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Alnafrah & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2020. "Constructing the Reconstruction Process: a Smooth Transition Towards Knowledge Society and Economy in Post-Conflict Syria," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 931-948, September.
    2. Thorsten Janus, 2020. "Terms of trade volatility, exports, and GDP," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 25-38, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alain Sand, 2005. "Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan," Working Papers 0411, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Gilles Dufrenot & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2004. "Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan economy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Gilles Dufrénot & Adelya Ospanova & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2014. "A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]," Working Papers halshs-00926223, HAL.
    4. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Alejandro Simone & Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/244, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ichiro Iwasaki, 2004. "Evolution of the Government–Business Relationship and Economic Performance in the Former Soviet States – Order State, Rescue State, Punish State," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 223-257, September.
    6. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2005. "Reforms and Economic Growth in Transition Economies: Complementarity, Sequencing and Speed," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 177-202, December.
    8. Iwasaki, Ichiro & 岩﨑, 一郎 & イワサキ, イチロウ, 2003. "Transition Strategies and Economic Performances in the Former Soviet States: A Comparative Institutional View," Discussion Paper Series a433, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Neimke, Markus, 2003. "Financial development and economic growth in transition countries," IEE Working Papers 173, Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Development Research and Development Policy (IEE).
    10. Richard Auty, 2003. "Natural resources and ‘gradual’ reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 255-266, November.
    11. Bo??tjan Jazbec, 2002. "Real Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 482, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jan & Tichit, Ariane, 2009. "Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 138-154, June.
    14. Sharun W. Mukand & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "In Search of the Holy Grail: Policy Convergence, Experimentation, and Economic Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 374-383, March.
    15. Laurila, Juhani & Singh, Rupinder, 2000. "Sequential reform strategy : The case of Azerbaijan," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Warren Coats & Marko Škreb, 2002. "Ten Years of Transition - Central Banking in the CEE and the Baltics," Surveys 7, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    17. Christa N. Brunnschweiler, 2009. "Oil and Growth in Transition Countries," OxCarre Working Papers 029, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    18. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    19. Igor Pelipas & Alexander Chubrik, 2008. "Market Reforms and Growth in Post-socialist Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Equilibrium Correction Model," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp936, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    20. Sukiassyan, Grigor, 2007. "Inequality and growth: What does the transition economy data say?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 35-56, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Asian CIS countries; Transition economies ; Kazakhstan ; Macroeconomic stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01463114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.