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Is Big Brother Watching Us? Google, Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Francisca Beer

    (CSUSB - California State University [San Bernardino])

  • Fabrice Hervé

    (LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mohamed Zouaoui

    (LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel measure of French investor sentiment based on the volume of internet search reported by Google Trends. We find that our sentiment indicator correlates well with alternative sentiment measures often used in the literature. Furthermore, we find that investor sentiment influences the behavior of mutual fund investors. The results also reveal evidence about short-run predictability in return. An increase in our sentiment index leads to short-term return reversal. The reversal pattern is more pronounced for smaller firms than larger firms, consistent with the predictions of noise trader's models.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisca Beer & Fabrice Hervé & Mohamed Zouaoui, 2013. "Is Big Brother Watching Us? Google, Investor Sentiment and the Stock Market," Post-Print hal-01346763, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01346763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. France, Stephen L. & Shi, Yuying & Kazandjian, Brett, 2021. "Web Trends: A valuable tool for business research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 666-679.
    3. V. D. Milovidov, 2024. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Dynamics: Ways to Forecast Stock Prices," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 518-529, August.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Time and frequency relationship between household investors’ sentiment index and US industry stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    5. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Ana Brochado, 2016. "Retail Investor Sentiment: Can We Google It?," EcoMod2016 9341, EcoMod.
    7. Stephen L. France & Yuying Shi, 2017. "Aggregating Google Trends: Multivariate Testing and Analysis," Papers 1712.03152, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    8. Frugier, Alain, 2016. "Returns, volatility and investor sentiment: Evidence from European stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-55.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Google Trends; Investor sentiment; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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