IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01119042.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the stock market liquidity and the business cycle: A multi country approach

Author

Listed:
  • Emilios C. C Galariotis

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Evangelos Giouvris

    (RHUL - Royal Holloway [University of London])

Abstract

We provide original results on national and global stock market liquidity and its interaction with macroeconomic variables for six of the G7 economies, namely: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and UK, building on the methodology and on the US evidence by Naes et al. (2011). Using a number of additional tests,we find that different markets do not behave in a uniform manner. National liquidity has diminished ability in Granger causing macroeconomic variables for our sample countries, and in additional tests the same holds for an extended US sample, contrary to Naes et al. As regards global liquidity there is a two-way causality with macroeconomic indicators for the six nations in our sample while for the US there is no causality in either direction. We also show that there is no superior information in small firm liquidity in Granger causing macroeconomic variables even for the US in contrast to the sample period employed by Naes et al. implying an unstable relationship over time for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilios C. C Galariotis & Evangelos Giouvris, 2015. "On the stock market liquidity and the business cycle: A multi country approach," Post-Print hal-01119042, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01119042
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    3. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    4. Goyenko, Ruslan & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Ukhov, Andrey, 2011. "The Term Structure of Bond Market Liquidity and Its Implications for Expected Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 111-139, February.
    5. Gur Huberman & Dominika Halka, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-178, June.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    8. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2011. "What Does Equity Sector Orderflow Tell Us About the Economy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3688-3730.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    10. Pereira, João Pedro & Zhang, Harold H., 2010. "Stock Returns and the Volatility of Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 1077-1110, August.
    11. Akiko Watanabe & Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Time-Varying Liquidity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2449-2486, November.
    12. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y. & Pérignon, Christophe, 2009. "Commonality in Liquidity: A Global Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 851-882, August.
    13. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    14. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    15. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegard, 2008. "Liquidity and the business cycle," Working Paper 2008/11, Norges Bank.
    16. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    17. R. David Mclean & Mengxin Zhao, 2014. "The Business Cycle, Investor Sentiment, and Costly External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1377-1409, June.
    18. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    20. Emilios C. Galariotis & Evangelos Giouvris, 2007. "Liquidity Commonality in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1‐2), pages 374-388, January.
    21. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    22. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2011. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 139-176, February.
    23. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    24. Fernández-Amador, Octavio & Gächter, Martin & Larch, Martin & Peter, Georg, 2013. "Does monetary policy determine stock market liquidity? New evidence from the euro zone," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 54-68.
    25. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
    26. Emilios C. Galariotis & Evangelos Giouvris, 2007. "Liquidity Commonality in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1‐2), pages 374-388, January.
    27. Huberman, Gur & Halka, Dominika, 2001. "Systematic Liquidity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 161-178, Summer.
    28. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    2. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Xi-Hua & Kong, Xianli, 2019. "The comovement and causality between stock market cycle and business cycle in China: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 17-30.
    3. Rogers Ochenge & Peter Muriu & Rose Ngugi, 2021. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Stock Market Liquidity in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(12), pages 1-47, December.
    4. Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Kousenidis, Dimitrios & Ladas, Anestis & Negkakis, Christos, 2020. "Regulation of capital flows: Effects on liquidity and the role of financial reporting quality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 86-97.
    5. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Kaul, Aditya & Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan, 2017. "Flight-to-quality, economic fundamentals, and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 162-175.
    7. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2016. "Bond Liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/16, University of Stavanger.
    8. Kroot, Jan & Giouvris, Evangelos, 2016. "Dutch mortgages: Impact of the crisis on probability of default," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 205-217.
    9. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Husaini Said & Evangelos Giouvris, 2019. "Oil, the Baltic Dry index, market (il)liquidity and business cycles: evidence from net oil-exporting/oil-importing countries," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(4), pages 349-416, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    2. Moshirian, Fariborz & Qian, Xiaolin & Wee, Claudia Koon Ghee & Zhang, Bohui, 2017. "The determinants and pricing of liquidity commonality around the world," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 22-41.
    3. Miralles Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles Quirós, María Del Mar & Oliveira, Célia, 2015. "Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    4. Chen, Yong & Eaton, Gregory W. & Paye, Bradley S., 2018. "Micro(structure) before macro? The predictive power of aggregate illiquidity for stock returns and economic activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 48-73.
    5. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    6. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.
    7. Joanna Olbry�, 2014. "Is illiquidity risk priced? The case of the Polish medium-size emerging stock market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 513�536-5.
    8. Ijaz Ur Rehman & Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Is the relationship between macroeconomy and stock market liquidity mutually reinforcing? Evidence from an emerging market," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 294-316.
    9. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2020. "On the term structure of liquidity in the European sovereign bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Bai, Min & Qin, Yafeng, 2015. "Commonality in liquidity in emerging markets: Another supply-side explanation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 90-106.
    11. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Wang, Jianxin, 2013. "Liquidity commonality among Asian equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1209-1231.
    13. Amihud, Yakov & Hameed, Allaudeen & Kang, Wenjin & Zhang, Huiping, 2015. "The illiquidity premium: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 350-368.
    14. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    15. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Thomas Paul & Thomas Walther & André Küster-Simic, 2022. "Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 203-260, June.
    17. Martin Hoesli & Anjeza Kadilli & Kustrim Reka, 2017. "Commonality in Liquidity and Real Estate Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 65-105, July.
    18. Li, Xiafei & Luo, Di, 2019. "Financial constraints, stock liquidity, and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Kim, Soon-Ho & Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2014. "Pricing of liquidity risks: Evidence from multiple liquidity measures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 112-133.
    20. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2019. "Commonality in ask-side vs. bid-side liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 198-207.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market liquidity; Real economy; Economic indicators; Granger causality panel data; Dumitrescu Hurlin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01119042. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.