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Aller simple pour l’Union

Author

Listed:
  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Valerie Chauvin
  • Paola Veroni

Abstract

Au cours de la décennie 1990, les trois principaux pays de la zone euro se sont imposés des contraintes nominales dans le cadre de la création de l'Union monétaire. Grâce à elles, ils ont corrigé certains déséquilibres initiaux, mais avec un coût important. La contrainte d'endettement des agents privés s'est desserrée en France, mais les taux d'intérêt très élevés du début de la décennie l'ont dans un premier temps rendue plus aiguë. La France a ainsi payé cher son entrée dans l'UEM. L'Italie a souffert pour rattraper le retard accumulé dans les années 1980. La convergence de l'inflation et de la politique budgétaire en Italie a rapproché les modes de formation des coûts de ceux de ses partenaires, mais elle a exercé une dure pression sur le revenu des ménages. L'abolition des mécanismes d'indexation a cependant permis de limiter le coût de la désinflation en termes de niveau de taux de chômage d'équilibre. La convergence vers le bas des taux d'intérêt a permis de restaurer la profitabilité en France et en Italie. En Allemagne, la réunification a enclenché une poussée d'inflation et son financement a eu raison des excédents d'épargne dégagés alors. Ces déséquilibres ont été résorbés au prix de pertes importantes d'emplois. L'ancrage des parités nominales des pays du noyau dur lui a permis de faire financer en partie par ses partenaires européens la réunification puisqu'il a imposé des taux d'intérêt trop élevés pour la situation interne des autres pays. En contrepartie, l'Allemagne est rentrée à un niveau surévalué dans l'Union monétaire.

Suggested Citation

  • Odile Chagny & Valerie Chauvin & Paola Veroni, 2001. "Aller simple pour l’Union," Post-Print hal-01017073, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01017073
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01017073v2
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    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01017073v2/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

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