IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00844810.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Alev Atak

    (Department of Economics - Department of Economics)

  • Oliver Linton

    (Department of Economics - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Zhijie Xiao

    (Department of Economics - BC - Boston College, THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing])

Abstract

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Alev Atak & Oliver Linton & Zhijie Xiao, 2011. "A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom," Post-Print hal-00844810, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00844810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.02.008
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00844810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00844810/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.02.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pateiro-López, Beatriz & González-Manteiga, Wenceslao, 2006. "Multivariate partially linear models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(14), pages 1543-1549, August.
    2. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    3. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2009. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 153-164, October.
    4. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L & Walker, James R, 1990. "Semiparametric Estimation of Selection Models: Some Empirical Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 324-328, May.
    5. Hoogstrate, Andre J & Palm, Franz C & Pfann, Gerard A, 2000. "Pooling in Dynamic Panel-Data Models: An Application to Forecasting GDP Growth Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 274-283, July.
    6. Lee, Lung-fei & Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Pitt, Mark M., 1997. "The effects of improved nutrition, sanitation, and water quality on child health in high-mortality populations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 209-235, March.
    7. Jiti Gao & Kim Hawthorne, 2006. "Semiparametric estimation and testing of the trend of temperature series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 332-355, July.
    8. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    9. Miguel A. Delgado & Thanasis Stengos, 1994. "Semiparametric Specification Testing of Non-nested Econometric Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 291-303.
    10. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521370905, September.
    11. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    12. Ahn, Hyungtaik & Powell, James L., 1993. "Semiparametric estimation of censored selection models with a nonparametric selection mechanism," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-29, July.
    13. Miguel A. Delgado & Thanasis Stengos, 1990. "Semiparametric Specification Testing," Working Paper 778, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    14. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424318, September.
    15. Rice, John, 1986. "Convergence rates for partially splined models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 203-208, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2022. "Comparing probabilistic forecasts of the daily minimum and maximum temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 267-281.
    2. Javier Hidalgo & Jungyoon Lee, 2014. "A Cusum Test of Common Trends in Large Heterogeneous Panels," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 576, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/576 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chen, Jia & Gao, Jiti & Li, Degui, 2012. "Semiparametric trending panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 71-85.
    5. Annegues, Ana Claudia & Rodrigues de Oliveira, Victor & Souza, Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias, 2017. "Thoughts on the inequality of opportunities: new evidence," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    6. Lena Boneva (Körber) & Oliver Linton & Michael Vogt, 2013. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers 02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Zhu, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yongjia & Li, Jianping & Wu, Dengsheng, 2015. "Change point detection for subprime crisis in American banking: From the perspective of risk dependence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-28.
    8. Michael Vogt & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Nonparametric estimation of a periodic sequence in the presence of a smooth trend," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 101(1), pages 121-140.
    9. Chen, Zhihong & Xia, Huizhu, 2020. "Trend instrumental variable regression with an application to the US New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 595-604.
    10. Boneva, Lena & Linton, Oliver & Vogt, Michael, 2015. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 327-345.
    11. Yonghui Zhang & Liangjun Su & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2012. "Testing for common trends in semi‐parametric panel data models with fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 56-100, February.
    12. Chen, Bin & Huang, Liquan, 2018. "Nonparametric testing for smooth structural changes in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 245-267.
    13. Xu, Ke-Li, 2016. "Multivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbances," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 38-57.
    14. Jia Chen & Degui Li & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Dong, Chaohua & Linton, Oliver & Peng, Bin, 2021. "A weighted sieve estimator for nonparametric time series models with nonstationary variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 909-932.
    16. Marina Khismatullina & Michael Vogt, 2022. "Multiscale Comparison of Nonparametric Trend Curves," Papers 2209.10841, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:journl:peer-00844810 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Linton, Oliver, 1995. "Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1079-1112, September.
    3. Wang, Qihua & Härdle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 2002. "Semiparametric regression analysis under imputation for missing response data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,6, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    4. Qi-Hua Wang, 2009. "Statistical estimation in partial linear models with covariate data missing at random," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 61(1), pages 47-84, March.
    5. Wang Q. & Linton O. & Hardle W., 2004. "Semiparametric Regression Analysis With Missing Response at Random," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 334-345, January.
    6. Patrick Puhani, 2000. "The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
    7. Claudia PIGINI, 2012. "Of Butterflies and Caterpillars: Bivariate Normality in the Sample Selection Model," Working Papers 377, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    9. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
    10. Lanot, Gauthier & Walker, Ian, 1998. "The union/non-union wage differential: An application of semi-parametric methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 327-349, June.
    11. Giovanni Mellace & Roberto Rocci, 2011. "Principal Stratification in sample selection problems with non normal error terms," CEIS Research Paper 194, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 02 May 2011.
    12. Ouyang, Yusi & Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, 2012. "Health Inequality between Ethnic Minority and Han Populations in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1452-1468.
    13. Fernández Sainz, Ana Isabel & Rodríguez Poo, Juan M. & Villanúa Martín, Inmaculada, 1999. "Finite sample behavior of two step estimators in selection models," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    14. Ana Fernandez Sainz & Juan Rodriguez-Poo & Inmaculada Villanua Martin, 2002. "Finite sample behavior of two step estimators in selection models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Wang, Xiaoguang & Lu, Dawei & Song, Lixin, 2013. "Statistical inference for partially linear stochastic models with heteroscedastic errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 150-160.
    16. Pigini Claudia, 2015. "Bivariate Non-Normality in the Sample Selection Model," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 123-144, January.
    17. Martin Huber & Blaise Melly, 2012. "A test of the conditional independence assumption in sample selection models," Working Papers 2012-11, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    18. Chen, Songnian & Zhou, Yahong, 2010. "Semiparametric and nonparametric estimation of sample selection models under symmetry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 143-150, July.
    19. Donald, Stephen G., 1995. "Two-step estimation of heteroskedastic sample selection models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 347-380, February.
    20. Nicoletti, Cheti, 2006. "Nonresponse in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 461-489, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C13; C14; C21; D24; Global warming; Kernel estimation; Semiparametric; Trend analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00844810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.