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A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Alev Atak

    (Department of Economics - Department of Economics)

  • Oliver Linton

    (Department of Economics - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Zhijie Xiao

    (Department of Economics - BC - Boston College, THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing])

Abstract

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Alev Atak & Oliver Linton & Zhijie Xiao, 2011. "A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom," Post-Print hal-00844810, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00844810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.02.008
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00844810
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jia & Gao, Jiti & Li, Degui, 2012. "Semiparametric trending panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 71-85.
    2. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2022. "Comparing probabilistic forecasts of the daily minimum and maximum temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 267-281.
    3. Javier Hidalgo & Jungyoon Lee, 2014. "A Cusum Test of Common Trends in Large Heterogeneous Panels," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 576, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Boneva, Lena & Linton, Oliver & Vogt, Michael, 2015. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 327-345.
    5. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/576 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yonghui Zhang & Liangjun Su & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2012. "Testing for common trends in semi‐parametric panel data models with fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 56-100, February.
    7. Annegues, Ana Claudia & Rodrigues de Oliveira, Victor & Souza, Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias, 2017. "Thoughts on the inequality of opportunities: new evidence," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    8. Michael Vogt & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Nonparametric estimation of a periodic sequence in the presence of a smooth trend," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 101(1), pages 121-140.
    9. Chen, Bin & Huang, Liquan, 2018. "Nonparametric testing for smooth structural changes in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 245-267.
    10. Lena Boneva (Körber) & Oliver Linton & Michael Vogt, 2013. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," CeMMAP working papers 02/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Zhu, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yongjia & Li, Jianping & Wu, Dengsheng, 2015. "Change point detection for subprime crisis in American banking: From the perspective of risk dependence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-28.
    12. Xu, Ke-Li, 2016. "Multivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbances," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 38-57.
    13. Chen, Zhihong & Xia, Huizhu, 2020. "Trend instrumental variable regression with an application to the US New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 595-604.
    14. Jia Chen & Degui Li & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Non- and Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Dong, Chaohua & Linton, Oliver & Peng, Bin, 2021. "A weighted sieve estimator for nonparametric time series models with nonstationary variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 909-932.
    16. Marina Khismatullina & Michael Vogt, 2022. "Multiscale Comparison of Nonparametric Trend Curves," Papers 2209.10841, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C13; C14; C21; D24; Global warming; Kernel estimation; Semiparametric; Trend analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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