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The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic

Author

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  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - EA 3165 - ULR - La Rochelle Université)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - UB - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Bordeaux INP - Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Elodie Djemaï & Arnaud Ducrot, 2012. "The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic," Post-Print hal-00759489, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00759489
    DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2012.688146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ermisch, John & Ogawa, Naohiro (ed.), 1994. "The Family, the Market, and the State in Ageing Societies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288183.
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    1. Visite guidée au coeur des travaux du Meilleur jeune économiste 2012 (2/2)
      by Matthieu Solignac in Regards croisés sur l'économie on 2012-06-11 03:05:40

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao Zang & Emanuel Krebs & Linwei Wang & Brandon D. L. Marshall & Reuben Granich & Bruce R. Schackman & Julio S. G. Montaner & Bohdan Nosyk, 2019. "Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(10), pages 1219-1239, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    epidemiology; population dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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