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Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane Loisel

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Christian Mazza

    (Département de Mathématiques - Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg)

  • Didier Rullière

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

Abstract

We consider the classical risk model and carry out a sensitivity and robustness analysis of finite-time ruin probabilities. We provide algorithms to compute the related influence functions. We also prove the weak convergence of a sequence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities starting from zero initial reserve toward a Gaussian random variable. We define the concepts of reliable finite-time ruin probability as a Value-at-Risk of the estimator of the finite-time ruin probability. To control this robust risk measure, an additional initial reserve is needed and called Estimation Risk Solvency Margin (ERSM). We apply our results to show how portfolio experience could be rewarded by cut-offs in solvency capital requirements. An application to catastrophe contamination and numerical examples are also developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Loisel & Christian Mazza & Didier Rullière, 2008. "Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin," Post-Print hal-00168714, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00168714
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2007.08.007
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00168714v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
    2. H. Panjer, Harry & Shaun Wang,, 1993. "On the Stability of Recursive Formulas," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 227-258, November.
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    5. Frees, Edward W., 1986. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Ruin," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 81-90, April.
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    7. Croux, Kristof & Veraverbeke, Noel, 1990. "Nonparametric estimators for the probability of ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2-3), pages 127-130, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 425-441, September.
    2. Asimit, Alexandru V. & Badescu, Alexandru M. & Verdonck, Tim, 2013. "Optimal risk transfer under quantile-based risk measurers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 252-265.
    3. Stéphane Loisel & Nicolas Privault, 2009. "Sensitivity analysis and density estimation for finite-time ruin probabilities," Post-Print hal-00201347, HAL.
    4. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    5. Romain Biard & Stéphane Loisel & Claudio Macci & Noel Veraverbeke, 2010. "Asymptotic behavior of the finite-time expected time-integrated negative part of some risk processes and optimal reserve allocation," Post-Print hal-00372525, HAL.
    6. Touazi, A. & Benouaret, Z. & Aissani, D. & Adjabi, S., 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of the claim amount in the strong stability analysis of the classical risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 78-83.
    7. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2008. "On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models," Post-Print hal-00168958, HAL.
    8. Li Qin & Susan M. Pitts, 2012. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Finite-Time Survival Probability with Zero Initial Capital in the Classical Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 919-936, December.

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