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Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Kirsten Wiebe

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

The paper at hand presents results of a model-based scenario analysis on the economic implications in the next decade of an oil peak today and significantly decreasing oil production in the coming years. For that the extraction paths of oil and other fossil fuels given in LBST (2010) are implemented in the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. Additionally, the scenarios incorporate different technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy, which cannot be forecast using econometric methods. GINFORS then endogenously determines world-wide energy demand and energy prices.The results show that the oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect effects on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium term reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution, lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:11-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_016 is not listed on IDEAS
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    4. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
    5. David I. Stern, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 307-331, April.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Wolfgang Schade & Dr. Michael Krail, 2011. "Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil peak today; model-based scenario analysis; world-wide energy demand; energy prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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