IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v48y2012icp829-834.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic effects of peak oil

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz, Christian
  • Lehr, Ulrike
  • Wiebe, Kirsten S.

Abstract

Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:829-834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512004296
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
    2. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    4. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    5. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    6. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
    7. Radetzki, Marian, 2010. "Peak Oil and other threatening peaks--Chimeras without substance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6566-6569, November.
    8. Christian Lutz & Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2010. "The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO 2 emissions," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 25-45.
    9. Tverberg, Gail E., 2012. "Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 27-34.
    10. Owen, Nick A. & Inderwildi, Oliver R. & King, David A., 2010. "The status of conventional world oil reserves--Hype or cause for concern?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4743-4749, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brecha, Robert J., 2012. "Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 586-597.
    2. Xiaoxiao Hu & Ling He & Qi Cui, 2021. "How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    4. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    5. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Ringsmuth, Andrew K. & Landsberg, Michael J. & Hankamer, Ben, 2016. "Can photosynthesis enable a global transition from fossil fuels to solar fuels, to mitigate climate change and fuel-supply limitations?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 134-163.
    7. Erika Carnevale & Giovanni Molari & Matteo Vittuari, 2017. "Used Cooking Oils in the Biogas Chain: A Technical and Economic Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    8. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Zoi Vrontisi & Ioannis Charalampidis & Ulrike Lehr & Mark Meyer & Leonidas Paroussos & Christian Lutz & Yen E. Lam-González & Anastasia Arabadzhyan & Matías M. González & Carmelo J. León, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Lin, Jie & Xiao, Hao & Chai, Jian, 2023. "Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Johannes Reinhard Többen & Martin Distelkamp & Britta Stöver & Saskia Reuschel & Lara Ahmann & Christian Lutz, 2022. "Global Land Use Impacts of Bioeconomy: An Econometric Input–Output Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Julio Cesar Silva Junior & Andrei Lucas Michaelsen & Mauro Scalvi & Miguel Gomes Pacheco, 2020. "Forecast of electric energy generation potential from swine manure in Santa Catarina, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2305-2319, March.
    13. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    14. Härtl, Fabian & Knoke, Thomas, 2014. "The influence of the oil price on timber supply," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-42.
    15. Anke Mönnig, 2016. "The European Monetary Union break-up: an economic experiment on the return of the deutsche mark," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 497-517, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Lutz, Christian, 2016. "Endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 739-751.
    3. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    4. Yazid Dissou & Lilia Karnizova & Qian Sun, 2015. "Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 107-121, March.
    5. Chibueze E. Onyeke & Ifeoma Nwakoby & Josaphat U. J. Onwumere & Ifeoma Ihegboro & Chidiebere Nnamani, 2020. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sectoral Returns in Nigeria Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 208-215.
    6. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    7. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks: Supplemental Results," MPRA Paper 74701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    9. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    10. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    11. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    12. Zoi Vrontisi & Ioannis Charalampidis & Ulrike Lehr & Mark Meyer & Leonidas Paroussos & Christian Lutz & Yen E. Lam-González & Anastasia Arabadzhyan & Matías M. González & Carmelo J. León, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Felipe Aldunate & Jaime Casassus, 2012. "Consumption and Hedging in Oil†Importing Developing Countries," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 896-928, November.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Joseph P. Byrne & Marco Lorusso & Bing Xu, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," CEERP Working Paper Series 006, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    17. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    18. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    19. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    20. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:829-834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.