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Economic effects of peak oil

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  • Lutz, Christian
  • Lehr, Ulrike
  • Wiebe, Kirsten S.

Abstract

Assuming that global oil production peaked, this paper uses scenario analysis to show the economic effects of a possible supply shortage and corresponding rise in oil prices in the next decade on different sectors in Germany and other major economies such as the US, Japan, China, the OPEC or Russia. Due to the price-inelasticity of oil demand the supply shortage leads to a sharp increase in oil prices in the second scenario, with high effects on GDP comparable to the magnitude of the global financial crises in 2008/09. Oil exporting countries benefit from high oil prices, whereas oil importing countries are negatively affected. Generally, the effects in the third scenario are significantly smaller than in the second, showing that energy efficiency measures and the switch to renewable energy sources decreases the countries' dependence on oil imports and hence reduces their vulnerability to oil price shocks on the world market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:48:y:2012:i:c:p:829-834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brecha, Robert J., 2012. "Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 586-597.
    2. Xiaoxiao Hu & Ling He & Qi Cui, 2021. "How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    4. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    5. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Ringsmuth, Andrew K. & Landsberg, Michael J. & Hankamer, Ben, 2016. "Can photosynthesis enable a global transition from fossil fuels to solar fuels, to mitigate climate change and fuel-supply limitations?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 134-163.
    7. Erika Carnevale & Giovanni Molari & Matteo Vittuari, 2017. "Used Cooking Oils in the Biogas Chain: A Technical and Economic Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    8. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Zoi Vrontisi & Ioannis Charalampidis & Ulrike Lehr & Mark Meyer & Leonidas Paroussos & Christian Lutz & Yen E. Lam-González & Anastasia Arabadzhyan & Matías M. González & Carmelo J. León, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Lin, Jie & Xiao, Hao & Chai, Jian, 2023. "Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Johannes Reinhard Többen & Martin Distelkamp & Britta Stöver & Saskia Reuschel & Lara Ahmann & Christian Lutz, 2022. "Global Land Use Impacts of Bioeconomy: An Econometric Input–Output Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Julio Cesar Silva Junior & Andrei Lucas Michaelsen & Mauro Scalvi & Miguel Gomes Pacheco, 2020. "Forecast of electric energy generation potential from swine manure in Santa Catarina, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2305-2319, March.
    13. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
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    15. Anke Mönnig, 2016. "The European Monetary Union break-up: an economic experiment on the return of the deutsche mark," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 497-517, October.

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