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French Nowcasts of the US Economy during the Great Recession: A Textual Analysis

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  • Emma Catalfamo

    (The George Washington University)

Abstract

In an interdependent world, agents make forecasts about other economies as well as their own. This paper examines the nowcasts made by the French Central Bank and the French business community of the US economy during the Great Recession. Textual analysis is used because quantitative forecasts are not available. The results indicate that the French agents understood the general trends of the US economy during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma Catalfamo, 2018. "French Nowcasts of the US Economy during the Great Recession: A Textual Analysis," Working Papers 2018-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-001
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2018-001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    2. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    3. Robert Goldfarb & H. O. Stekler & Joel David, 2005. "Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 517-542.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
    3. Gabriel Mathy & Christian Roatta, 2018. "Forecasting the 1937-1938 Recession: Quantifying Contemporary Newspaper Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Nélida Díaz Sobrino & Corinna Ghirelli & Samuel Hurtado & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "The narrative about the economy as a shadow forecast: an analysis using Banco de España quarterly reports," Working Papers 2042, Banco de España.

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    Keywords

    US economy; French nowcasts; textual analysis;
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