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Economic prediction with the FOMC minutes: An application of text mining

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  • Huang, Yu-Lieh
  • Kuan, Chung-Ming

Abstract

We conduct a sentiment analysis of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes based on the text mining results and examine the predictive ability of the resulting sentiment indicators. An adaptive Bayesian approach is employed to build the sentiment indicator for each of the Fed’s mandates. We also improve existing mining techniques by identifying economics-related compound words and terminology in the minutes. Our empirical study shows that the mandate-specific indicators exhibit distinct patterns which help illustrate the FOMC’s policy emphasis in different periods. It is also shown that these indicators are useful in predicting economic variables and generating superior out-of-sample forecasts. These results support the existing findings that the Fed possesses valuable information about the U.S. economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yu-Lieh & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2021. "Economic prediction with the FOMC minutes: An application of text mining," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 751-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:71:y:2021:i:c:p:751-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.09.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Eklund & Jong‐Min Kim, 2024. "Forecasting Consumer Price Index with Federal Open Market Committee Sentiment Index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1795-1813, September.
    2. Dooruj Rambaccussing & Craig Menzies & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2022. "Look who’s Talking: Individual Committee members’ impact on inflation expectations," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 305, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    3. Chen, Chung-Chi & Huang, Yu-Lieh & Yang, Fang, 2024. "Semantics matter: An empirical study on economic policy uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1286-1302.
    4. Liu, Chunzi & Chen, Xiaoli, 2024. "Spillover effects of multidimensional information in Fed statements on China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 712-741.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Compound words; FOMC minutes; MAP-PLSA model; Sentiment indicator; Text mining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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