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Extended Crop Yield Meta-analysis Data do not Support Upward SCC Revision

Author

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  • Ross McKitrick

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada)

Abstract

The Biden Administration has raised its Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate about 5-fold based in part on global crop yield decline projections estimated on a meta-analysis data base first published in 2014. The data set contains 1,722 records but half were missing at least one variable (usually the change in CO2) so only 862 were available for multivariate regression modeling. By re-examining the underlying sources I was able to recover 360 records and increase the sample size to 1,222. Reanalysis on the larger data set yields very different results. While the original smaller data set implies yield declines of all crop types even at low levels of warming, on the full data set global average yield changes are zero or positive even out to 5°C warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross McKitrick, 2024. "Extended Crop Yield Meta-analysis Data do not Support Upward SCC Revision," Working Papers 2404, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2024-04
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