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Encompassing Tests of Socioeconomic Signals in Surface Climate Data

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  • Ross McKitrick

    (Department of Economics,University of Guelph)

Abstract

The debate over whether urbanization and related socioeconomic developments affect large-scale surface climate trends is stalemated with incommensurable arguments. Each side can appeal to supporting statistical evidence based on data sets that do not overlap, yielding inferences that merely conflict with but do not refute one another. I argue that such debates can only be resolved in an encompassing framework, in which both types of results can be demonstrated on the same data set, in such a way that apparent support for one conclusion occurs as a restricted case of a more general specification that supports the other, and where the restrictions can be tested. The issues under debate make such data sets challenging to construct, but I give two illustrative examples. First, insignificant differences in warming trends in urban temperature data between windy and calm conditions are shown in a restricted model whose general form shows temperature data to be strongly affected by local population growth. Second, an apparent equivalence between trends in a data set stratified by a static measure of urbanization is shown to be a restricted finding in a model whose general form indicates significant influence of local socioeconomic development on temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross McKitrick, 2012. "Encompassing Tests of Socioeconomic Signals in Surface Climate Data," Working Papers 1202, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2012-02.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Parker, 2004. "Large-scale warming is not urban," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7015), pages 290-290, November.
    2. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    3. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    4. Maurizio Pisati, 2001. "Tools for spatiel data analysis," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(60).
    5. McKitrick Ross, 2010. "Atmospheric Circulations Do Not Explain the Temperature-Industrialization Correlation," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Dayaratna & Ross McKitrick, 2023. "Reply to comment on “climate sensitivity, agricultural productivity and the social cost of carbon in fund” by Philip Meyer," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(2), pages 291-298, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urbanization; Socioeconomic growth patterns; climate data; spatial correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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