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Stationarity of Global Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ross McKitrick

    (Department of Economics, University of Guelph)

  • Mark C. Strazicich

    (Department of Economics, Appalachian State University)

Abstract

Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st century peak population levels in the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global warming forecasts are unrealistically high.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross McKitrick & Mark C. Strazicich, 2005. "Stationarity of Global Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Global Warming Scenarios," Working Papers 0503, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2005-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ross McKitrick, 2007. "Why did US air pollution decline after 1970?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 491-513, November.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "New evidence on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions from panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1468-1475.
    3. Firouz Fallahi, 2020. "Persistence and unit root in $$\text {CO}_{2}$$CO2 emissions: evidence from disaggregated global and regional data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2155-2179, May.
    4. Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in $$\hbox {CO2}$$ CO2 Emissions: Evidence from the BRICS and G7 Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 869-883, August.
    6. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Khan, Atif Maqbool & Bibi, Salma & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2017. "Convergence of per capita CO2 emissions across the globe: Insights via wavelet analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 86-97.
    7. Acar, Sevil & Yeldan, A. Erinç, 2018. "Investigating patterns of carbon convergence in an uneven economy: The case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-106.
    8. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May.
    9. Kofi Adom, Philip & Bekoe, William & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin & Mensah, Justice Tei & Botchway, Ebo, 2012. "Carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, industrial structure, and technical efficiency: Empirical evidence from Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco on the causal dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 314-325.
    10. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. Ordás Criado, C. & Grether, J.-M., 2011. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: A robust distributional approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 637-665, September.
    12. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2008. "Are per capita carbon dioxide emissions converging among industrialized countries? New time series evidence with structural breaks," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 497-515, August.
    13. Bjart Holtsmark, 2006. "Are Global per Capita CO2 Emissions Likely to Remain Stable?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 17(2), pages 207-219, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Warming; Structural Break; Emission Scenarios.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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