Choice of Benchmark When Forecasting Long-term Stock Returns
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- repec:grz:wpaper:2015-05 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2003. "Prediction of Stock Returns: A New Way to Look at It," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 399-417, November.
- Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
- repec:grz:wpaper:2015-03 is not listed on IDEAS
- Wendner, Ronald, 2015. "Do positional preferences for wealth and consumption cause inter-temporal distortions?," MPRA Paper 64086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- repec:grz:wpaper:2015-01 is not listed on IDEAS
- Scholz, Michael & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2015. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns based on yearly data: The long-term view," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 143-155.
- repec:grz:wpaper:2015-06 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:grz:wpaper:2015-04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Donnelly, Catherine & Guillen, Montserrat & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Pérez-Marín, Ana Maria, 2018. "Implementing Individual Savings Decisions For Retirement With Bounds On Wealth," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 111-137, January.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 221-240, February.
- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, March.
- Zhao, Albert Bo & Cheng, Tingting, 2022. "Stock return prediction: Stacking a variety of models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-317.
- Parastoo Mousavi, 2021. "Debt-by-Price Ratio, End-of-Year Economic Growth, and Long-Term Prediction of Stock Returns," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-18, July.
- Enno Mammen & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz & Stefan Sperlich, 2019. "Conditional Variance Forecasts for Long-Term Stock Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, November.
- Cheng, T. & Gao, J. & Linton, O., 2019.
"Nonparametric Predictive Regressions for Stock Return Prediction,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
1932, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton, 2019. "Nonparametric Predictive Regressions for Stock Return Prediction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gerrard, Russell & Hiabu, Munir & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2020. "Long-term real dynamic investment planning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 90-103.
- José María Sarabia & Faustino Prieto & Vanesa Jordá & Stefan Sperlich, 2020. "A Note on Combining Machine Learning with Statistical Modeling for Financial Data Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2020. "Longer-Term Forecasting of Excess Stock Returns—The Five-Year Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2020. "Short-Term Exuberance and long-term stability: A simultaneous optimization of stock return predictions for short and long horizons," Graz Economics Papers 2020-20, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2019. "Machine Learning for Forecasting Excess Stock Returns The Five-Year-View," Graz Economics Papers 2019-06, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
- Schünemann, Johannes & Trimborn, Timo, 2023.
"Boosting taxes for boasting about houses? Status concerns in the housing market,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 120-143.
- Schünemann, Johannes & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "Boosting taxes for boasting about houses: Status concerns in the housing market," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 05/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
- Trimborn, Timo & Schünemann, Johannes, 2019. "Boosting Taxes for Boasting about Houses? Status Concerns in the Housing Market," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203577, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Schünemann, Johannes & Trimborn, Timo, 2018. "Boosting taxes for boasting about houses? Status concerns in the housing market," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 344, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton, 2017.
"Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
13/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton, 2018. "Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- repec:grz:wpaper:2012-02 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christoph Kuzmics & Daniel Rodenburger, 2018. "A case of evolutionary stable attainable equilibrium in the lab," Graz Economics Papers 2018-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Yadira Mori Clement & Birgit Bednar-Friedl, 2017. "Do Clean Development Mechanism projects generate local employment? Testing for sectoral effects across Brazilian municipalities," Graz Economics Papers 2017-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2019.
"The quest for status and R&D-based growth,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 290-307.
- Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
- Prettner, Klaus & Hof, Franz, 2016. "The Quest for Status and R&D-based Growth," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145554, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 12-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
- Andreas Darmann & Julia Grundner & Christian Klamler, 2017. "Consensus in the 2015 Provincial Parliament Election in Styria, Austria: Voting Rules,Outcomes, and the Condorcet Paradox," Graz Economics Papers 2017-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2020.
"Order‐invariant tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 440-456, June.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2018. "Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 7023, CESifo.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2018. "Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Graz Economics Papers 2018-09, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Michael Weba, 2024. "Investment strategies based on forecasts are (almost) useless," Papers 2408.01772, arXiv.org.
More about this item
Keywords
Benchmark; Cross validation; Prediction; Stock returns;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-AGE-2018-04-23 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-FOR-2018-04-23 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2018-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Borsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vgrazat.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.