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Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Tingting Cheng

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Jiti Gao

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Oliver Linton

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Cambridge)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose three new predictive models: the multi-step nonparametric predictive regression model and the multi-step additive predictive regression model, in which the predictive variables are locally stationary time series; and the multi-step time-varying coefficient predictive regression model, in which the predictive variables are stochastically nonstationary. We also establish the estimation theory and asymptotic properties for these models in the short horizon and long horizon case. To evaluate the effectiveness of these models, we investigate their capability of stock return prediction. The empirical results show that all of these models can substantially outperform the traditional linear predictive regression model in terms of both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. In addition, we fi nd that these models can always beat the historical mean model in terms of in-sample fi tting, and also for some cases in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Oliver Linton, 2018. "Multi-step non- and semi-parametric predictive regressions for short and long horizon stock return prediction," CeMMAP working papers CWP03/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:03/18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Xibin Zhang, 2014. "Semiparametric Localized Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Li, Degui & Gao, Jiti, 2017. "Estimating smooth structural change in cointegration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 180-195.
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    5. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
    6. Tingting Cheng & Jiti Gao & Xibin Zhang, 2014. "Semiparametric Localized Bandwidth Selection for Kernel Density Estimation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Uniform Convergence Rates For Kernel Estimation With Dependent Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 726-748, June.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
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    11. Scholz, Michael & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2015. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns based on yearly data: The long-term view," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 143-155.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 221-240, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kernel estimator; locally stationary process; series estimator; stock return prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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