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Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Semi-Parametric Survival Analysis

Author

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  • Alcina Nunes

    (ESTG, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança and GEMF/Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal)

  • Elsa Sarmento

    (Departamento de Economia e Gestão da Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal)

Abstract

We address the post-entry performance of new Portuguese firms by investigating the structural characteristics of the hazard and survival functions, using semi-parametric survival analysis for the total economy and its broad sectors. In order to approach the prevalence of some stylized facts and determinants of new firm survival, a new entrepreneurship database was produced, using the administrative data of Quadros de Pessoal, following the Eurostat/OECD´s internationally comparable business demography methodology. In line with the literature, we find that firms that start small and experience faster post-entry growth, face a higher probability of survival. Firm’s current size dimension matters particularly for the Services sector probability of survival. In industries characterized by high entry rates, post-entry survival is more difficult. This happens mostly in Agriculture and the Construction sectors in Portugal. We find a different result from the literature, for the effect of industry growth in survival rates. Firms operating in industries which are growing faster, seem to suffer from a higher probability of failure. The combined effect of turbulence and entry and growth variables help explaining this unexpected effect of industry growth on survival probabilities. By correcting heterogeneity, we obtain stronger magnitudes of the hazard ratios found previously.

Suggested Citation

  • Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Semi-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2010-10, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2010-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elsa Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2011. "Survival dynamics in Portugal, a regional perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1313, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Michael Fritsch & Florian Noseleit & Yvonne Schindele, 2014. "Surviving Against the Tide: Are New Businesses in Innovative Industries Less Affected by General Economic Trends?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2014-017, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Elsa Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2010. "Análise comparativa de sobrevivência empresarial: o caso da região Norte de Portugal," GEE Papers 0028, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Dec 2010.
    4. Elsa Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2010. "Comparative Survival Analysis of Firms: the case of the Portuguese North region," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 53, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    5. Joanna Duda, 2013. "The Role of Bank Credits in Investment Financing of the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Sector in Poland," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 7-20.
    6. K. Liczmanska & A.M. Wisniewska, 2013. "A strong brand as a determinant of purchase the case of sectors, where advertising in mass media is banned – on the example of the Polish spirits sector," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 83-98.
    7. Zając, Paweł, 2013. "The New Approach to Estimation of the Hazard Function in Business Demography on Example of Data from New Zealand," MPRA Paper 68600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    8. Diana López & Daymler O'Farrill & Josué Pérez & Beatriz Velasquez, 2017. "Determinants on firm survival in Chile: Evidence from cohort 2010 for the period 2011-15," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Big Data, volume 44, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "Modeling of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 65-82.
    10. Henryk Gurgul & Machno Artur & Roland Mestel, 2013. "Modeling of returns and trading volume by regime switching copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 45-64.
    11. Yuliyana Yarkova & Krasimira Toneva & Nedelin Markov, 2017. "Regional Disproportions – Business Demography and Economic Growth (Example of Bulgaria)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 153-171.
    12. Elsa de Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2011. "Criação de empresas em Portugal e Espanha: análise comparativa com base nos dados do Banco Mundial," GEE Papers 0036, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised May 2011.
    13. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Robert Syrek, 2013. "The testing of causal stock returns-trading volume dependencies with the aid of copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 21-44.
    14. Pawel Zajac, 2013. "The New Approach to estimation of the Hazard Function in Business Demography on example of Data from New Zealand," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 99-110.
    15. Alcina Nunes & Elsa de Morais Sarmento, 2010. "Business Survival in Portuguese Regions," GEMF Working Papers 2010-22, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    16. Elsa de Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2012. "The Dynamics of Employer Entreprise Creation in Portugal Over the Last Two Decades: A Firm Size, Regional and Sectoral Perspective," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 36, pages 6-22, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General

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