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May Human Capital Rescue The Empty Planet?

Author

Listed:
  • Spyridon Boikos

    (University of Macedonia (Department of Economics),Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Alberto Bucci

    (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, and ICEA (International Center for Economic Analysis, Canada)

  • Tiago Neves Sequeira

    (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that fertility rates are (and will be expected to remain in the future) below the replacement level for several countries and especially for the most technological advanced ones, which indicates that the World population will start decreasing sooner or later. In the light of this, we reconsider the Empty Planet result – Jones (2022) – and include human capital and class size effects in R&D endogenous growth models with decreasing population. We find that the introduction of human capital mitigates, or even overcomes, the Empty Planet result. In particular, under some mild conditions, our setting allows obtaining simultaneous long-run economic growth and secular productivity stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Spyridon Boikos & Alberto Bucci & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2022. "May Human Capital Rescue The Empty Planet?," CeBER Working Papers 2022-09, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:papers:2022-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Jones, Charles I & Williams, John C, 2000. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-85, March.
    4. Oriana Bandiera & Valentino Larcinese & Imran Rasul, 2010. "Heterogeneous Class Size Effects: New Evidence from a Panel of University Students," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1365-1398, December.
    5. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    6. Arnold, Lutz G., 1998. "Growth, Welfare, and Trade in an Integrated Model of Human-Capital Accumulation and Research," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 81-105, January.
    7. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Derick & Naudé, Wim & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and the Discovery of New Ideas: Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?," IZA Discussion Papers 16766, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous economic growth; R&D; Human Capital; Declining Population; Empty Planet.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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