IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/glh/wpfacu/134.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Globalization and Protectionism: AMLO’s 2006 Presidential Run

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Bustos

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Jose Ramon Morales Arilla

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

Abstract

We study the effects of local tariff drops for Mexican exports to the US on the local electoral perfor- mance of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico’s 2006 presidential election. In an effort to appeal to his rural base, AMLO proposed to unilaterally retain tariff exemptions on imported corn and beans, which were scheduled to drop under NAFTA by the end of 2008. This elevated protectionism in the public agenda during the campaign. We find that local economic gains due to export tariff drops under NAFTA between 1994 and 2001 led to a drop in AMLO’s local vote share gains in 2006. These effects are contingent to the 2006 election, as similar effects on local vote for the left are not found in previous or later elections. Results are robust to controls for local grain growing and Chinese competition. We predict that AMLO would have been elected in 2006 had protectionism not been a salient electoral issue. Our findings suggest export access gains due to globalization undermine local political preferences over national protectionist platforms.

Suggested Citation

Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:134
as

Download full text from publisher

File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2019-03-cid-fellows-wp-111-globalism-protectionism.pdf
Download Restriction: no
---><---

More about this item

Keywords

NAFTA; AMLO; Globalization; Protectionism;
All these keywords.

JEL classification:

  • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
  • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
  • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chuck McKenney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/ .

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.