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U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

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  • Xiaoshan Chen
  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Campbell Leith

Abstract

We estimate a model in which both fiscal and monetary policy behavior arise from the optimizing behavior of distinct monetary and fiscal authorities. Optimal time-consistent policy behavior fits U.S. time series at least as well as rules-based behavior. American policy makers have often been in conflict. After the Volcker disinflation, policies did not achieve the conventional mix of a conservative monetary policy paired with a debt-stabilizing fiscal policy. If credible, a conservative central bank that follows a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. Enhancing cooperation between policy makers without an ability to commit would be detrimental to welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoshan Chen & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2019. "U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," Working Papers 2020_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2020_04
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    Cited by:

    1. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    2. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    4. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Active, or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the Great Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-184.
    6. Stephanie Ettmeier & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2020. "Active, or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy in the Great Inflation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1872, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Klaus Neusser, 2018. "The New Keynesian Model with Stochastically Varying Policies," Diskussionsschriften dp1801, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Neusser, Klaus, 2019. "Time–varying rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2021. "Generalized Stability of Monetary Unions Under Regime Switching in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 73-94, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Estimation; Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions; Optimal Policy; Markov Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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