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Les politiques monetaires au sein du SME

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  • Jacq, P.
  • Jondeau, E.
  • Sedillot, F.

Abstract

[eng] Monetary Policies under the EMS, . by Patrick Jacq, Eric Jondeau and Frank Sédillot.. . The constraints imposed by the EMS and the prospects for the European Union have produced a spectacular alignment of Member States' interest rates. This alignment has been essentially asymmetric with the majority of the countries seeing Germany as the leader in monetary policy. The article first considas monetary policy in the EMS Member States before the exchange crises of 1992. It endeavours to identify the reaction functions of the different central banks, mainly through inflation/growth arbitrage and the foreign exchange constraint. The mechanism aligning the behaviour of these central banks is illustrated by positing weights that vary over time for the different goals. The article then turns to the effect of the EMS aisis on the Member States' monetary policies. In particular, it looks at which new specifications of reaction functions provide an account of the observed trend in interest rates (increased weight of the foreign exchange constraint, etc.) and it endeavours to identify the specific features of each country. [fre] Les politiques monétaires au sein du SME, . par Patrick Jacq, Eric Jondeau, Frank Sédillot. . . Les contraintes imposées par le SME et les perspectives de l 'union européenne ont permis une convergence spectaculaire des taux d'intérêt de l'ensemble des pays membres. Cette convergence a été en grande partie asymétrique, l'Allemagne jouant pour la plupart des pays le rôle de leader de la politique monétaire. Nous considérons, dans un premier temps, la politique monétaire des pays membres du SME avant les aises de change de 1992 : nous cherchons à identifier les fonctions de réaction des différentes banques centrales, notamment à travers l'arbitrage inflation/croissance et la contrainte de change ; nous illustrons le mécanisme de convergence des comportements de ces mêmes banques centrales en supposant les pondérations variables au cours du temps pour
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Suggested Citation

  • Jacq, P. & Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1993. "Les politiques monetaires au sein du SME," Papers 1993-13-f, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:cadeco:1993-13-f
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Artus, 1986. "Crises de balance des paiements, politique monétaire, contrôle des changes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(4), pages 637-658.
    2. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1990. "The `New' EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Bernard CONNOLLY & Jurgen KRÖGER, 1993. "Economic Convergence in the Integrating Community Economy and the Role of Economic Policies," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1993012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    1. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs fran ais et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.
    2. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.

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    Keywords

    politique monetaire ; union monetaire;

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