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Les crises de balance des paiements sont-elles inévitables ?

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  • Partick Artus

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[fre] Les crises de balance des paiements sont-elles inévitables ?. . Pour être rendu plus réaliste, le modèle de crise de balance des paiements doit être étendu dans plusieurs directions : introduction de la détention d'actifs rémunérés et possibilité pour les autorités d'agir sur les taux d'intérêt ; existence de spéculateurs agressifs ne visant pas seulement à éviter les pertes de change ; présence d'investisseurs non rationnels. Une fois réalisées ces extensions, on peut se demander dans quels cas ou par quelles politiques les crises de balance des paiements peuvent être évitées ; on examinera en particulier le cas de pays n'ayant pas de perte structurelle de compétitivité, mais qui, comme l'ont montré les événements récents, peuvent voir leur monnaie attaquée. [eng] It is possible to avoid speculative balance of payments crises ? . . To be made more realistic, the balance of payments crisis model has to be extended in several directions : introduction of interest paying assets and possibility for the authorities to modify interest rates : existence of speculators aiming at making capital gains and not only at protecting themselves from capital losses due to exchange rate depreciations ; intervention of non-rational investors.. Once these extensions have been incorporated into the model, one can examine in which cases and using which policies balance or payments crisis can be avoided. We pay a special attention to the case of countries which don't suffer from a structural decline in competitiveness, but which, as recent events have shown, can be affected by a speculative attack on their currency.

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  • Partick Artus, 1994. "Les crises de balance des paiements sont-elles inévitables ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1400.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_6_409615
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1994.409615
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1994.409615
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    1. Bernard Bensaïd & Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Fragilité des systèmes de change fixe et contrôle des capitaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 163-174.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Patrick Artus & Claude Jessua, 1996. "La spéculation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 409-424.

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