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Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)

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  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia

Abstract

The paper examines whether the planned eradication of poverty to the year 2030 part of the Sustainable Development Goals strategy is compatible with the trends expected over the next 15 years in key economic variables such as GDP growth, population growth, income inequality and food prices. To do so, the paper develops a comparative-static, poverty-accounting model that allows to simulate to 2030 the impact on SDG1 (poverty eradication) of the fastest improvements recorded for the above four variables during the last 30 years. Numerous model simulations show that – even under the most favorable assumptions – between 16 and 28 countries (mainly from Africa) out of the 78 analyzed will not reach the SDG1 target. Policy suggestions on how to improve on such results are presented at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2018. "Eradicating Poverty by 2030: Implications for Income Inequality, Population Policies, Food Prices (and Faster Growth?)," Working Papers - Economics wp2018_09.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2018_09.rdf
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    1. Giovanni Cornia & Bruno Martorano, "undated". "Building the integrated inequality database and the seven sins of inequality measurement in Sub-Saharan Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2016-01, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    2. Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(1), pages 70-101, January.
    3. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea (ed.), 2014. "Falling Inequality in Latin America: Policy Changes and Lessons," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198701804.
    4. Rahul Lahoti & Arjun Jayadev & Sanjay G. Reddy, 2014. "The Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP): An Introduction and Preliminary Findings," LIS Working papers 621, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    5. Leonardo Gasparini & Federico Gutiérrez & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2007. "Growth And Income Poverty In Latin America And The Caribbean: Evidence From Household Surveys," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 209-245, June.
    6. Li, Hongyi & Squire, Lyn & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 26-43, January.
    7. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2012. "Development Policies and Income Inequality in Selected Developing Regions, 1980–2010," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 210, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    8. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Bruno Martorano & Giovanni Andrea Cornia, "undated". "Building an Integrated Inequality Dataset and the Seven Sins of Inequality Measurement in sub-Saharan Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-16, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    9. Atkinson, Anthony B., 2015. "Inequality: what can be done?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101810, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Lakner,Christoph & Negre Rossignoli,Mario & Prydz,Espen Beer & Lakner,Christoph & Negre Rossignoli,Mario & Prydz,Espen Beer, 2014. "Twinning the goals : how can promoting shared prosperity help to reduce global poverty ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7106, The World Bank.
    11. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2017. "The dynamics of income inequality in a dualistic economy: Malawi from 1990 to 2011," Working Papers - Economics wp2017_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    12. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2015. "When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 13(3), pages 449-464, September.
    13. Giovanna Andrea Cornia & Antonio Scognamillo, 2016. "Clusters of Least Developed Countries, their evolution between 1993 and 2013, and policies to expand their productive capacity," CDP Background Papers 033, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    14. Stephan Klasen, 2003. "In Search of The Holy Grail: How to Achieve Pro-Poor Growth ?," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 096, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SDG1; poverty eradication; inequality; GDP growth; population growth; food prices; public policies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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