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Agricultural growth and poverty in Mozambique: Technical analysis in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP)

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  • Pauw, Karl
  • Thurlow, James
  • Uaiene, Rafael
  • Mazunda, John

Abstract

In this study we calibrate a CGE model to Mozambique’s newest social accounting matrix (SAM) to consider economywide growth, poverty, and nutrition impacts under alternative agricultural growth scenarios. Scenarios are compared over the period 2009–2019, which coincides with the implementation period of the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA), Mozambique’s embodiment of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP). The “baseline scenario†assumes a continuation of Mozambique’s recent experience of low agricultural productivity and slow progress in the fight against poverty. Although national accounts estimates suggest that agricultural GDP expanded at around 7.4 percent per annum during 2003–2007, this figure has been widely questioned. In our baseline scenario, which carefully replicates historic crop production trends from official statistics, agricultural GDP only expands at 3.2 percent per annum during 2009–2019, while the economy as a whole expands at 5.7 percent per annum. The poverty headcount rate declines from 54.6 in 2008/09 (the official estimate) to 46.8 percent by 2019. The biggest decline in poverty occurs in the southern region where, following recent trends, agricultur-al productivity increases more rapidly off a very low base compared to other regions. The share of caloric deficient people declines from 57.1 percent in the base to 50.1 percent by 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael & Mazunda, John, 2012. "Agricultural growth and poverty in Mozambique: Technical analysis in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP)," Mozambique Working Paper 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:msspwp:2
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & Azhar Hussain & Sam Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2011. "Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-017, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Benin, Samuel & Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Thurlow, James, 2012. "Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: Economywide perspectives from country studies," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number Xinshen Diao.
    3. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 795-804.
    4. Channing Arndt & M. Azhar Hussain & E. Samuel Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2011. "Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 017, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise, 2013. "Ralentissement de la croissance économique des principaux partenaires commerciaux et ses implications sur l’économie congolaise [Impact of slower economic growth in major trading partners on the Co," MPRA Paper 65089, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    2. Mogues, Tewodaj & Benin, Samuel & Woldeyohannes, Sileshi, 2012. "Public Expenditures in Agriculture in Mozambique: What Investments are Required for Technical Change, and What Drives Investment Decisions?," MSSP working papers 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Faaiqa Hartley & Dirk van Seventer & Emilio Tostão & Channing Arndt, 2019. "Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 233-249, March.
    4. Nlemfu Mukoko, J.Blaise & Wabenga Yango, James, 2014. "Croisssance Agricole et Options d'Investissement en R.D.Congo : une Analyse en Equilibre Général Calculable [Agriculture Growth and investments options for poverty reduction in D.R.Congo]," MPRA Paper 58193, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jun 2015.
    5. Michel Notelid & Anneli Ekblom, 2021. "Household Vulnerability and Transformability in Limpopo National Park," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, March.

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