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Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Hussain, M. Azhar
  • Jones, E. Samuel
  • Nhate, Virgulino
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

Measuring poverty remains a complex and contentious issue. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa where poverty rates are higher, information bases typically weaker, and the underlying determinants of welfare relatively volatile. This paper employs recently collected data on household consumption in Mozambique to examine the evolution of consumption poverty with focus on the period 2002-03 to 2008-09. The paper contributes in four areas. First, the period in question was characterized by major movements in international commodity prices. Mozambique provides an illuminating case study of the implications of these world commodity price changes for living standards of poor people. Second, a novel 'backcasting' approach using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique, linked to a poverty module, is introduced. Third, the backcasting approach is also employed to rigorously examine the povertygrowth-inequality triangle. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty rates are presented. We find that the national poverty rate in Mozambique stagnated between 2002/03 and 2008/09.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Hussain, M. Azhar & Jones, E. Samuel & Nhate, Virgulino & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique," Conference papers 332145, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332145
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravallion, Martin & Bidani, Benu, 1994. "How Robust Is a Poverty Profile?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
    2. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael, 2010. "Biofuels, poverty, and growth: a computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 81-105, February.
    3. Dirk WILLENBOCKEL & Sherman ROBINSON, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model," EcoMod2009 21500092, EcoMod.
    4. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November.
    5. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Maxim Pinkovskiy, 2010. "African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!," NBER Working Papers 15775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Freund, Caroline, 2009. "The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5015, The World Bank.
    7. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Maximiano, Nelson & Nucifora, Antonio M.D. & Thurlow, James, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: Economic impacts and responses for Mozambique," IFPRI discussion papers 836, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Reinert, Kenneth A & Roland-Holst, David W, 1994. "Structural Change in the United States: Social Accounting Estimates for 1982-1988," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 429-449.
    9. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andes Chivangue & Carlos Barros, 2017. "Poverty and Informal Trade," CEsA Working Papers 151, CEsA - Centre for African and Development Studies.
    2. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    3. Arndt, Channing & Distante, Roberta & Hussain, M. Azhar & Østerdal, Lars Peter & Huong, Pham Lan & Ibraimo, Maimuna, 2012. "Ordinal Welfare Comparisons with Multiple Discrete Indicators: A First Order Dominance Approach and Application to Child Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2290-2301.
    4. Arndt, Channing & Distante, Roberta & Hussain, M. Azhar & Østerdal, Lars Peter & Huong, Pham Lan & Ibraimo, Maimuna, 2012. "Ordinal Welfare Comparisons with Multiple Discrete Indicators: A First Order Dominance Approach and Application to Child Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2290-2301.
    5. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    6. Fox, Louise & Sohnesen, Thomas Pave, 2013. "Household enterprises in Mozambique : key to poverty reduction but not on the development agenda ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6570, The World Bank.
    7. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael & Mazunda, John, 2012. "Agricultural growth and poverty in Mozambique: Technical analysis in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP)," MSSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Milla Nyyssölä & Jukka Pirttilä & Susanna Sandström, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Food Security in Subsistence Agruculture – Evidence from a Group-Based Aid Project in Mozambique," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-33, Autumn.
    9. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-36 is not listed on IDEAS

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