IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/1158.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:

Author

Listed:
  • Ganesh-Kumar, A.
  • Mehta, Rajesh
  • Pullabhotla, Hemant
  • Prasad, Sanjay K.
  • Ganguly, Kavery
  • Gulati, Ashok

Abstract

This paper attempts to project the future supply and demand up to the year 2025 for rice and wheat, the two main cereals cultivated and consumed in India. A review of studies that forecast the supply and demand of Indian agriculture commodities revealed three important limitations of such studies: (a) The forecasts are generally overestimated (in the ex post situation); (b) the methodology is not clearly outlined; (c) ex-ante validation of the forecast have not been carried out. This study presents forecasts based on models that are validated so that forecast performances can be assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganesh-Kumar, A. & Mehta, Rajesh & Pullabhotla, Hemant & Prasad, Sanjay K. & Ganguly, Kavery & Gulati, Ashok, 2012. "Demand and supply of cereals in India: 2010-2025:," IFPRI discussion papers 1158, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01158.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarma, J. S. & Gandhi, Vasant P., 1990. "Production and consumption of foodgrains in India: implications of accelerated economic growth and poverty alleviation," Research reports 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Surabhi Mittal, 2006. "Structural Shift in Demand for Food: Projections for 2020," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 184, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Richard Green & Julian M. Alston, 1990. "Elasticities in AIDS Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 442-445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Panagariya & Megha Mukim, 2014. "A Comprehensive Analysis of Poverty in India," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-52, March.
    2. pandey, Aviral, 2015. "Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option," MPRA Paper 64237, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2015.
    3. Hoa K. Hoang, 2018. "Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short†term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 83-95, January.
    4. Rahul Anand & Naresh Kumar & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2016. "Understanding India’s Food Inflation: The Role of Demand and Supply Factors," IMF Working Papers 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Christophe Gouel & Madhur Gautam & Will J. Martin, 2016. "Managing food price volatility in a large open country: the case of wheat in India," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 811-835.
    6. Ward, Patrick S. & Ortega, David L. & Spielman, David J. & Singh, Vartika, 2013. "Farmer preferences for drought tolerance in hybrid versus inbred rice: Evidence from Bihar, India:," IFPRI discussion papers 1307, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Surabhi Mittal, 2010. "Application of the Quaids Model to the Food Sector in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 42-54, January.
    2. Surabhi Mittal, 2008. "Demand-Supply Trends and Projections of Food in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 209, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    3. Zhang, Xiaobo & Mount, Timothy D. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2001. "The Demand For Food Grain In China : New Insights Into A Controversy," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-9, April.
    4. T.Y. Sheng & M.N. Shamsudin & Z. Mohamed & A.M. Abdullah & A. Radam, 2008. "Complete demand systems of food in Malaysia," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 54(10), pages 467-475.
    5. Connolly, Greg & Wittwer, Glyn & Roper, Heather, 1992. "Effects of Changes in Wool Prices and Wages of Japanese Demand for Wool," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146433, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Csáki, Csaba, 1999. "Középtávú tendenciák a világ agrárpiacain [Medium-term trends on the agrarian world markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-306.
    7. Elena Lasarte Navamuel & Fernando Rubiera Moroll & Dusan Paredes, 2014. "City size and household food consumption: demand elasticities in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1624-1641, May.
    8. Klonaris, Stathis, 2017. "Measuring the Intensity of Competition in the Greek Imported Meat Market," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 1), January.
    9. Mark Sommer & Kurt Kratena, 2016. "The Carbon Footprint of European Households and Income Distribution. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 113," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58787, January.
    10. San, Nu Nu & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1998. "Indonesian agriculture in transition: Projections of alternative futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 445-465.
    11. Helen Jensen & Justo Manrique, 1998. "Demand for food commodities by income groups in Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 491-501.
    12. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Shankar, Bhavani & Aekplakorn, Wichai & Basu, Sanjay & Cuevas, Soledad & Dangour, Alan D. & Gheewala, Shabbir H. & Green, Rosemary & Joy, Edward J.M. & , 2019. "Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 92-103.
    13. John Curtis & Brian Stanley, 2016. "Analysing Residential Energy Demand: An Error Correction Demand System Approach for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 185-211.
    14. Thanagopal, Dr. Thannaletchimy & Housset, Félix, 2017. "A quality-adjusted AIDS model in the study of French imports," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 85-99.
    15. Moschini, G. & Moro, D., 1993. "A Food demand System for Canada," Papers 1-93, Gouvernement du Canada - Agriculture Canada.
    16. Hossain, Ferdaus & Jensen, Helen H., 2000. "Lithuania's food demand during economic transition," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 31-40, June.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xia, 2013. "Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 329-337.
    18. Siddique, Md. Abu Bakr & Salam , Md. Abdus & Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Estimating the Demand Elasticity of Rice in Bangladesh: An Application of the Aids Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(03), January.
    19. Coulibaly, Jeanne Y., 2013. "Do Source and Quality matter in the Demand for Imported Rice in Côte d’Ivoire?," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161266, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    20. Suwen Pan & Cheng Fang & Jaime Malaga, 2006. "Alcoholic beverage consumption in China: a censored demand system approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 975-979.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cereal crops; Wheat markets; Rice markets; quadratic almost ideal demand system; Household behavior; Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia (CSISA);
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.