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Prospects for global food security

Author

Listed:
  • McCalla, Alex F.
  • Revoredo, Cesar L.

Abstract

During the last half century, a number of individuals and institutions, including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and IFPRI, have engaged in projections of future food demand, supply, and related variables. In this brief, Alex McCalla and Cesar Revoredo compare projections with real-life outcomes. Projections forecast outcomes on the basis of certain underlying factors. If such forecasted outcomes are undesirable, changes may be made in the underlying factors so that the projections may not, in fact, come to pass. Many projections serve this precise goal. Therefore, the success of projections may not be that they match actual outcomes but that they avoid such outcomes by promoting action to change underlying variables. Unlike predictions, which are successful only if they match actual outcomes, projections that differ from actual outcomes may reflect either poor projection models or changes in underlying variables, possibly caused by the projections themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • McCalla, Alex F. & Revoredo, Cesar L., 2001. "Prospects for global food security," 2020 vision briefs 71, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:2020br:71
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip G. Pardey & Jason M. Beddow & Terrance M. Hurley & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Vernon R. Eidman, 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 571-589, October.
    2. McCalla, Alex F., 2007. "FAO in the Changing Global Landscape," Working Papers 190919, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Toma, Luiza & Mathijs, Erik & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2006. "Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession," Working Papers 45991, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    4. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 554-570, October.
    5. Muhammad Bashir & Steven Schilizzi, 2015. "Food security policy assessment in the Punjab, Pakistan: effectiveness, distortions and their perceptions," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 7(5), pages 1071-1089, October.
    6. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.

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