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Team Structure Modelling of Defaultable Bonds

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  • Philipp J. Schonbucher

Abstract

In this paper we present a model of the development of the term structure of defaultable interest rates that is based on a multiple-defaults model. Instead of modelling a cash payoff in default we assume that defaulted debt is restructured and continues to be traded. The model allows for loss quotas that are not predictable while maintaining a very close link to the modelling of default-free interest rate modelling. We use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) [21] approach to represent the terms structure of defaultable bond prices in terms of forward rates and concentrate on modelling the development of the term structure of the defaultable bonds and give conditions under which these dynamics are arbitrage-free. These conditions are drift restriction that is closely related to the HJM drift restriction for risk-free bonds, and the restriction that the defaultable short rate must always be not below the risk-free short rate. By keeping mechanism that triggers the defaults as general as possible, it is shown that the HJM-drift conditions must also be satisfied by bond prices derived from firms value models with predictable times of default, and not only by bond prices derived from intensity based models. In its most general version the model is set in a marked point process framework, to allow for jumps in the defaultable rates at times of default.

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  • Philipp J. Schonbucher, 1997. "Team Structure Modelling of Defaultable Bonds," FMG Discussion Papers dp272, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp272
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    3. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen & Erik Schlögl, 2009. "Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Alejandro Revéiz Hérault, "undated". "Factores determinantes de los márgenes entre bonos del gobierno y bonos corporativos en los Estados Unidos," Lecturas en Finanzas 002710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246, Elsevier.
    6. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Samuel Chege Maina & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2010. "Markovian Defaultable HJM Term Structure Models with Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Research Paper Series 283, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Onorato, Mario & Altman, Edward I., 2005. "An integrated pricing model for defaultable loans and bonds," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 65-82, May.
    9. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6, July-Dece.
    10. Colino, Jesús P. & Stute, Winfried, 2008. "Credit risk with semimartingales and risk-neutrality," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws085417, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. Acharya, Viral & Bharath, Sreedhar T & Srinivasan, Anand, 2003. "Understanding the Recovery Rates on Defaulted Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 4098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Cheikh Mbaye & Fr'ed'eric Vrins, 2019. "An arbitrage-free conic martingale model with application to credit risk," Papers 1909.02474, arXiv.org.
    13. Tao Peng, 2010. "Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling and CDO Pricing - Analytics and Implied Trees from CDO Tranches," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 8, July-Dece.
    14. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2005, January-A.
    15. Rihab Bedoui & Islem Kedidi, 2018. "Modeling Longevity Risk using Consistent Dynamics Affine Mortality Models," Working Papers hal-01678050, HAL.
    16. Matti Koivu & Teemu Pennanen, 2010. "Reduced form models of bond portfolios," Papers 1011.3246, arXiv.org.
    17. Blackburn, Craig & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Consistent dynamic affine mortality models for longevity risk applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 64-73.
    18. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    19. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    20. Gunter Meissner & Seth Rooder & Kristofor Fan, 2013. "The impact of different correlation approaches on valuing credit default swaps with counterparty risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1903-1913, December.
    21. Norbert Jobst & Stavros A. Zenios, 2001. "Extending Credit Risk (Pricing) Models for the Simulation of Portfolios of Interest Rate and Credit Risk Sensitive Securities," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.

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