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Selection and the Roy Model in the Neolithic Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Nurfatima Jandarova

    (Tampere University, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research (FIT))

  • Aldo Rustichini

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

We analyze the evolution of the distribution of genotypes in European populations over the past 14,000 years. In our model, evolution is driven by selection operating after a shift in the productivity of agriculture, induced by the post-Younger Dryas climate change, in a Roy model where individuals self-select into one of two sectors, foraging and farming. The model extends a standard Wright-Fisher model to include two technologies and sexual reproduction. We test the model in two data sets, ancient and modern DNA, matching the observed distributions of genetic variables (allele frequencies and lineages). We show that a shift in the distribution of allele frequencies in a direction favoring higher cognitive ability, occurred when climate warming changed the relative productivity of agriculture and foraging. The general implication we draw is that historical transformations (e.g., climate change and technological change) may affect the distribution of genotype and thus economic equilibria and institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurfatima Jandarova & Aldo Rustichini, 2024. "Selection and the Roy Model in the Neolithic Transition," Working Papers 27, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fit:wpaper:27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Rowthorn, 2011. "A bioeconomic view of the transition to agriculture: a comment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1044-1047, August.
    2. Arthur J. Robson, 2010. "A bioeconomic view of the Neolithic transition to agriculture," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 280-300, February.
    3. Robert Rowthorn, 2011. "A bioeconomic view of the transition to agriculture: a comment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1044-1047, August.
    4. Jeremy J Berg & Graham Coop, 2014. "A Population Genetic Signal of Polygenic Adaptation," PLOS Genetics, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Rowthorn, Robert & Seabright, Paul, 2010. "Property Rights, Warfare and the Neolithic Transition," TSE Working Papers 10-207, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Weichen Song & Yueqi Shi & Weidi Wang & Weihao Pan & Wei Qian & Shunying Yu & Min Zhao & Guan Ning Lin, 2021. "A selection pressure landscape for 870 human polygenic traits," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1731-1743, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological change; occupational choice; individual characteristics; genetic transmission; population genetics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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