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Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation

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  • J. David Cummins
  • Martin F. Grace
  • Richard D. Phillips

Abstract

This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.

Suggested Citation

  • J. David Cummins & Martin F. Grace & Richard D. Phillips, 1998. "Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation," Working Papers 98-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cummins, J. David & Harrington, Scott E. & Klein, Robert, 1995. "Insolvency experience, risk-based capital, and prompt corrective action in property-liability insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 511-527, June.
    2. Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 1993. "Stock versus Mutual Ownership Structures: The Risk Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 29-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eling, Martin & Gatzert, Nadine & Schmeiser, Hato, 2009. "Minimum standards for investment performance: A new perspective on non-life insurer solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 113-122, August.
    2. Carson, James & Hoyt, Robert, 2000. "Evaluating the risk of life insurer insolvency: implications from the US for the European Union," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 297-314, December.
    3. Robert W. Klein, 2012. "The Modernization of Insurance Company Solvency Regulation in the U.S.: Issues and Implications," NFI Policy Briefs 2012-PB-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    4. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    5. Berry-Stölzle, Thomas R. & Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F., 2010. "Detecting fuzzy relationships in regression models: The case of insurer solvency surveillance in Germany," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 554-567, June.
    6. Cummins, J David & Mahul, Olivier, 2003. "Optimal Insurance with Divergent Beliefs about Insurer Total Default Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 121-138, October.
    7. Kessler, Denis, 2008. "Insurance market mechanisms and government interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 4-14, January.
    8. Leverty, J. Tyler & Grace, Martin F., 2010. "The robustness of output measures in property-liability insurance efficiency studies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1510-1524, July.
    9. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2012. "The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property–Liability Insolvency Prediction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 723-750, September.
    10. Butler Richard J, 2017. "Econometrics Illustrated, with Applications from Insurance-Research Awards," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, July.
    11. J. Cummins & Gregory Nini, 2002. "Optimal Capital Utilization by Financial Firms: Evidence from the Property-Liability Insurance Industry," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 15-53, February.
    12. Steven Pottier & David Sommer, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 101-116, February.
    13. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    14. Pierre-Charles Pradier & Arnaud Chneiweiss, 2016. "The evolution of insurance regulation in the EU since 2005," Post-Print halshs-01390899, HAL.
    15. Brockett, Patrick L. & Cooper, William W. & Golden, Linda L. & Rousseau, John J. & Wang, Yuying, 2004. "Evaluating solvency versus efficiency performance and different forms of organization and marketing in US property--liability insurance companies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 492-514, April.
    16. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Richard Podpiera & Nigel Davies, 2003. "Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness," IMF Working Papers 2003/138, International Monetary Fund.
    17. P. Picard, 2000. "Les nouveaux enjeux de la régulation des marchés d'assurance," THEMA Working Papers 2000-53, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    18. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Regulatory Effect of Risk-Based Capital in Property-Liability Insurance," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-20, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    19. Benjamin Lorent, 2010. "Insurance Solvency Regulation: Regulatory Approaches Compared," Working Papers CEB 10-041, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Therese M. Vaughan, 2008. "The Implications of Prompt Corrective Action for Insurance Firms," NFI Policy Briefs 2008-PB-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

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